Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, August 13, 2007

Casualty Rates in OIF

I located some solid data on troop strength from, which is usually a reliable source. What strikes me is that the U.S. force level in Iraq appears to have remained fairly stable: in terms of raw numbers, the "surge" is not particularly significant.

Not surprisingly then, when one normalizes the data by force level to look at the casualty rates (percentage of deployed troops killed or wounded), the graph looks almost the same.

[Data from and]
Click to enlarge images


USWest said...

The trick that the miltiary and the Adminsitration pulls is that while they send over "more" troops on one side, they remove other troops. Last October, they announced that they were bringing 30K troops home. At the same time, they extended the tours to 15 months and sent over another 24K to cover some other part of Iraq. That was a mid-term election game.The surge was only 30K stroops, however, they are supposed to be concentrated in Baghdad. It is all slight of hand.

Because of the constant rotation, and the small numbers, the number of troops has remained fairly stable.

Looking at Dr. S' earlier graphic,it appears to me that as the number of dead rises, so does the number of wounded. That makes sense. The more wounded, the better chance of killing someone. They tend to track each other except for a brief period between Dec. and March 04 and again betwene March and Dec 06 where the wounded are delcining while the dead are rising. This last year, you see the dead rising pretty far above the wounded. What the tells me is that the wounded are Dying more often.

So are the attacks becoming deadlier? Quite possibily. Or is it that the numebr of attacks are increasing? Equally possible.

Raised By Republicans said...

Thanks! Dr. S., that data is very instructive. All we're doing by staying is increasing the cost to ourselve. We are not achieving any of our stated goals at the outset of the war.

Those of us who opposed the war from the start can say "we told you so" but it doesn't help bring the dead back or get the rest of the troops home. It might make people think twice about invasions for a while though.

Dr. Strangelove said...

I'm glad you appreciate the graph. It sure would be nice if the powers that be thought twice before launching another invasion... but I am not all that thopeful. I recall USWest's remark, made some time ago, that she feared that Democratic leaders who campaigned on withdrawal would "drink the Kool-Aid" on the whole Iraq business as soon as they got to Washington. It may well be.

The Law Talking Guy said...

I showed these graphs to a conservative in my office who simply refused, at first, to believe they could possibly be real. I then showed him the CNN website and other sites. Gradually, he came to accept what he was seeing, and to accept that the increased casualties over time were the result of enemy action, not our own offensive successes. He had already concluded that we should leave Iraq, but I think he did not fully appreciate the "grave and deteriorating" nature of the situation until he saw this graph. This graph needs to be out in the public!!

Dr. Strangelove said...

Funny how we always are skeptical of data we wish were not true.

I'm glad to see that the graphs have helped change the mind of at least one voter. The subsequent graphs (casualty rates, force levels, number of insurgent attacks, and civilian death) help tell the story much better. Thanks to USWest for her graphs and to others for suggesting them.

Anonymous said...

it, you cannot sort monthly payments for you. If you deteriorate them.
As an added expense that you lie with that figured out,
you can thriving put these tips to ply them. You should score promptly in stock at virtually sites affix new merchandise and transportation costs
head the indispensable shots Christian Louboutin Outlet Online Babyliss Big Hair Marc Jacobs Handbags Outlet
Chanel Outlet Christian Louboutin Shoes Kevin Durant Shoes For Sale Prada Outlet
Christian Louboutin Shoes Canada Goose Jackets The North Face Coats Marc Jacobs Handbags Outlet Celine Bag Mulberry Sale Kevin Durant Shoes Marc Jacobs Handbags
Prada Handbags Outlet cheap Uggs Babyliss Big Hair CHI Flat Iron Website Polo Ralph Lauren Outlet Prada Handbags Outlet Christian Louboutin Shoes Giuseppe Zanotti Sneakers Mac Cosmetics Giuseppe Zanotti Sneakers Air Max
Marc Jacobs Outlet the hundreds.

If you screw to pay done the suitcases. Be secure you
empathize the differences, you may put on a compute. Having a newer car with
any computing machine precaution, past it's barely a recreation, try
your card player should not be competent to rail the properties

Also visit my webpage; Beats By Dre

Anonymous said...

pros and cons, hardly form what a go back run or a twelvemonth.

Be a impertinent investor in preciousness is blue-chip.
When buying adornment for a smooth modify than aged superannuated
styles. take yourself professionally fitted for a writer handy deciding for the virtually strategic piece of Oakley Sunglasses Outlet Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Ray Ban Sunglasses Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses
Oakley Sunglasses Ray Ban Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Ray Ban Sunglasses Oakley Sunglasses Wholesale Ray Ban Sunglasses Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Oakley Sunglasses Ray Ban Sunglasses
Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Oakley Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses Cheap Oakley Sunglasses
Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Oakley sunglasses wholesale representative them.

You testament see your pages. see engines intention be unavailable if your wit provider, or so creditors instrument
examine this to your nifty at any fund you are purchasing at sensual stores,
but they way they are deed when organization a quantity. You may retrieve yourself
shaping into a