Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Iraq and 9/11 and Horse Race update

Iraq and 9/11:

Bush is out giving his stump speeches now making no distinction at all between Iraq and the War on Terror. This is smart politics but it is laughably untrue.

With the exception of Fox News viewers, most people know that Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the attacks on 9/11. The problem is that Fox News has high ratings as it attracts many viewers with its flashy style and sensationalist approach.

Also, today is the landmark day in which 1000 Americans have been killed in Iraq. At this rate, if Bush is reelected, more Americans will have died in Iraq than died in the 9/11 attacks by the time Bush is in his second year of his second term. What is more, the war in Iraq has already cost more than the 9/11 attacks. I'm not trying to equate the two events on moral terms or anything looney like that. I'm just trying to underscore the costs of the two events because Bush points to the 9/11 attacks as the cause of economic problems but never says the war in Iraq causes such problems.

Horse Race Update:
Finally, Zogby has just released a series of state polls taken after the RNC (reported in the electoral vote calculator link on the sidebar). With these updates Kerry hangs on to a 42 electoral vote lead over Bush (264 to 222). While Bush currently leads in Ohio, 4 other states that voted for Bush in 2000 are exactly tied (Florida, Missouri, Colorado [pre RNC Rasmussen poll], Nevada). If Kerry wins either Florida, Missouri or Colorado he wins the election. If Kerry wins Nevada, he would need to win one more Bush state (the most likely being Arkansas which is a 2 point race right now). Also, Zogby's website has a press release that says the conventions appear to have had little to no effect on the state by state results.

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