In national polls, HRC's lead over Obama is diminishing. In Iowa, Obama is leading. In SC, polls show a tie. Today, a new poll shows Obama tied with HRC in New Hampshire also. The vaunted "firewall" of Clinton in NH may be foundering. It's too early to say what will happen, but it is starting to look like Obama has, as Bush pere would say, "the big mo." Attack dogs should be coming soon.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
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For those who want to see a real horse race in the nomination process rather than an early decisive win with repeated victory laps, you want Obama to beat Clinton.
Clinton has the money to stay in even with 2nd or even 3rd place showings early on.
This could all make Edwards something of a spoiler/king-maker. This is getting interesting.
The Republican nomination is even more shook up right now. With all the attention on Huckabee, the polls show Giuliani has begun to follow the Romney nose-dive. My theory: as soon as the others go negative on Huckabee, voters will turn away from him too. And that leaves (drumroll please) McCain! (Thank you.)
Which worries me. Because he's the one I'm most afraid of. Hucakbee speaks of a "NASCAR strategy" where the big boys take each other out. I think actually McCain can benefit from that more. And polls I have seen also show he has the best chance (better than Giuliani or Romney) of defeating both Obama or Clinton.
How is the run-up to the Primaries going over there? Is it simply a continuation of the ongoing coverage, a gradual increase or something more definitive? I can imagine the prospect of actually knowing who is running would be almost palpable...
Spotted Handfish
Dear God, Dr. S. Did you just describe the GOP process as "shook up"? =)
FYI, Rasmussen now has Obama ahead in NH. It's just plain crazy if you look at polls.
Spotted H: it's a gradual increase. It will get REALLY bad over Christmas, when the news staff divides into the politicos who are working and everyone else who is not. That is why, incidentally, we get lots of stories about dead celebs over the holidays. They're canned. So a death that would merit a one-day headline (Ford) on other days becomes a week-long extravaganza.
Did I just call the GOP race "shook up"? Hell, I sure did!! Yuk yuk! Just gettin' in the Red State spirit, I guess...
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