The Citizens

Bell Curve

The Law Talking Guy

Raised by Republicans

U.S. West

Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Friday, November 03, 2006

"Mistakes Were Made"

Arab grammarians call the passive voice the majhoul, the hidden or unknown voice. It is a perceptive name. A speaker can use the passive voice to say words that sound honest while hiding the truth and implicating others.

Listen to how Republican Representative Tom Reynolds cleverly employs the majhoul as he "apologizes" on TV for hushing up the Mark Foley scandal: "This Spring, I was told about odd, but not explicit e-mails between Mark Foley and a Page... Even so, I reported what I had been told to the Speaker of the House... Looking back, more should have been done--and for that, I am sorry." Who told Reynolds about the e-mails? Reynolds is silent. Who should have done more? Reynolds implies it was Hastert.

Now listen to how Speaker Hastert weasels his way around the same issue: "I'm deeply sorry this has happened and the bottom line is we're taking responsibility." What has happened for which he is sorry? Who did that for which Hastert purports to express remorse? Hastert avoids those unpleasant questions with the majhoul.

Equally hollow is Hastert's de rigueur remark that, "we are taking responsibility." Apparently, Hastert's version of "taking responsibility" does not include accepting any blame or punishment: Hastert continues to insist he did nothing wrong and he won't even resign his post.

It's just like President Bush's phoney mea culpa for Katrina: "I take full responsibility for the federal government's response." Oh really, Mr. Bush? Then why is it that someone else ("Brownie") resigned--not you? Name a single thing you did to show remorse or do penance! What does it mean to "take full responsibility" when you do not hold yourself the least bit responsible?

The Republican culture of corruption is also a culture of unaccountability. The Republican Congress has offered no meaningful oversight of the most secretive, most power-hungry Executive in history. Let us all hope that the Democrats regain one or both Houses of Congress so we can finally hold this corrupt administration responsible for when, "mistakes were made."

Come on, is Ned Flanders straight?

Apparently the answer from Colorado Springs is "no." A prominent mega-church leader and Republican anti-gay activist has been accused of having a 3 year "arrangement" with a male prostitute. He has resigned but denies the accusations. How much better would his life (and the political scene in Colorado) have been if he had just allowed himself (and been allowed) to be who he was and just live life?

Colorado has recently become Theocrat central and there is a gay bashing ballot measure on the ballot this year to get out their votes. This could depress Republican turnout even more in a state where the Demcorats were surging already.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Prognostication Time

It's all well and good to bloviate, but it's getting time for The Citizens to see if they can call the elections right. Many political sites still list the balance of races in play as "tossups." Sure, that may be the best scientific answer (i.e., the model has a margin of error, so there you go) but it's also not much more useful or interesting than cowpie bingo.

Go out on a limb, Citizens.

My predictions:
Senate: 50(D)-49(R)-1(I). Democrats will pick up Montana, Penn, Ohio, RI, Virginia, and Missouri. Lieberman, an Independent, will take Connecticut in a close race. Not clear who will control the Senate if it is in Lieberman's hands to decide (his promises to caucus with Dems are not convincing).

Reasons: A trend in Virignia and Missouri developing this week should put McCaskill and Webb over the top. Other states show solid, steady poll numbers for Dems. My prediction of a Lamont victory made earlier is now withdrawn, although I think the reasoning still favors a stronger Lamont showing than the polls currently predict.

House: Democrats will pick up around 220-25 seats.

Reasons: Best polling indicates that the Dems seem certain to get 10-12 pickups, with 15-25 "tossups" remaining. Assuming the Republican GOTV efforts do not meet the fantastical expectations some have suggested, this still leaves Democrats picking up 20 seats or above.

Ultimately, the "generic ballot" favoring Dems is just too much of a tidal wave to overcome. Self-identified independents and Democrats look alike in the polls. Outside of the deep South, this means wide Dem victories.

And the rest of you?

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Kill the Primaries

As this campaign season draws to a close, I feel fatigued. It's not as bad as the marathon that was the 2004 presidential election, but it's still bad enough that I find myself looking back fondly to California's 2003 gubernatorial recall election.

The "recall" aspect of the affair was at best dubious (as was the restriction that Gray Davis could not appear on the ballot) but otherwise the campaign season was mercifully short (just 80 days), no primaries were needed, and it was the most fun, exciting, and democratic election in Californian history. (Also the most Democratic: more Democrats ran than members of any other party... and you've got to love an election process where Larry Flynt ends up the #2 ranked Democrat in the race.)

The ballot gave us the choice of 135 candidates from all walks of life--famous, infamous, and obscure--and if that weren't enough, there were 23 write-in candidates. People of all political viewpoints were able to participate fully in the process: anyone with the $3,500 fee and 65 signatures could join, and candidates from political parties could submit signatures in lieu of the filing fee (10,000 for major party candidates, 150 for recognized minor parties, or a pro-rated fee based on the fraction of that number obtained).

The problem of splitting the vote could be overcome by instituting preference voting (discussed elsewhere on the blog). In fact, preference voting might even turn the problem on its head: a pair of popular Democrats might draw more votes than just one. And the issue might not even arise. Consider that Arnold Schwarzenegger nearly won an outright majority in that election despite the presence of the popular conservative Tom McClintock--and remember that many suspect Arnold never could have survived the standard Republican primary.

In the end, primaries do little more than restrict our choices, entrench the reigning political party machines, and foster polarization. I say we kill the primaries and throw the general election wide open. (I now await denunciations of my naivete from the other Citizens.)

Why oh why?

What wisdom ever dictated that California voters should vote on State Supreme Court justices? Better yet, why are we voting for Appellate judges? You can't find any real useful information about them. You get to vote either yes or no for their 12 year terms of office. Most voters figure the positions have to be filled and they passively vote yes. It's a waste of voter time.

The governor in this state gets to appoint justices, which voters end up rubber stamping. I say just pick your State Senate Committee and then let them decide. Attempts to be "democratic" are counterproductive in absence of useful voter information and some things really shouldn't be voted on.

Comments from the Citizens?

Sunday, October 29, 2006

OH-02: MAJOR GAFFE

Unbelievable! Jean Schmidt, just elected a short while back to Congress, decided it would be a good idea to let it known that she wants to consider having nuclear waste dumped in her district. I can't think of too many dumber things to say this close to an election. Wow. Her opponent, Victoria Wulsin, must be doing a jig!

It now looks extremely likely that Democrats will win back the house. The question is, how big of a turnaround will it be?

Saturday, October 28, 2006

It's ballot proposition time!

It's that time of year, where I link to a list of who's endorsing which ballot propositions and ask my fellow citizens what they think. Is there anything I should vote "yes" on this year, or should I do what I always do and vote "no" across the board? Discuss in the comments.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

CNN's Populism

OK, there's been a lot of Bush bashing lately and rightly so. But there are other people out there who are corrupting our society. Chicken Noodle News!

CNN has been running a number of brief stories that show that the populism of Lou Dobbs is becoming the editorial identity of CNN.

Lou Dobb's attacks on free trade are well known. The most absurd situation I saw was when Dobbs tried to debate former Labor Secretary Reich about the benefits of free trade. Reich was pro-trade and Dobbs was anti. Dobbs looked a fool with have informed rhetoric etc.

But the other day I heard CNN report that the reason the cost of college education, especially in public institutions, is rising faster than inflation is "rising professor salaries." The commentator even went so far as to say directly that "some say professors are overpaid, other disagree but we're talking about 6 figure salaries here." This is not only absurd, it's offensive. Salaries for professors are actually flat or dropping in real terms and have been for decades. Why are costs going up? Take a look at precious Johnny or Joan's dorm rooms - free cable, free DSL, free parking, movie nights, etc! Take a look at the growing number of non-education related perks that incoming students seem to demand. At the same time, their parents insist on endless tax cuts and refuse to budge on their own pet programs (understandable and rational). The result is massive cuts in public support for education. The universities have no choice but to raise tuition.
In a story today, they said that the average salary for someone with a four year degree is $51,000. Now, that's almost what I make and I'm a professor with a B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. The average salary for someone with "some graduate school" is $78,000. That's considerably more than I make and I have A LOT of graduate school - and a lot of student loans to pay back. For this amount, I work 60 hours a week 50-52 weeks a year. My students are getting a lot more financial compensation for what I teach them than I get for teaching it to them. Am I overpaid? I could nearly double my salary by moving to the private sector. Don't get me wrong, I'm not bitter about my job. I love it. I am upset that my career is portrayed as some sort of parasitic dodge. I'm in academia because I want to be not because of the glamorous life style and big money.

Today CNN ran a story with the tag line "Is College Worth it?" with mysterious music in the background and the tone of the commentator obviously hinting that it is not. Guess what. It is worth it, but stating the obvious isn't "sexy" so they made a big show in the lead up about how controversial their findings would be.

But CNN is all about whipping up a populist, anti-intellectual frenzy.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Harold Ford... Call Me...

This ad was taken down from Tennesee airwaves today. It is said to be racist. Watch it. What do the Citizens think? My reactions: (1) It's definitely sexist as hell. (2) It kind of made me want to vote for Ford anyway, as if the tagline were, "Corker: prudish stuckup prig."

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Bush Gaffe Again

Today, according to the news, Mr. Bush said Democrats were “genetically disposed” to raising taxes and are way too confident.

Ummmm... What about George Bush Senior? Read his lips and W's genes.

Google Bombing

From an idea at mydd.com.

Thanks to everyone for the kind words about Data Point! I will be doing more one-handed blogging these days.

There's nothing particularly interesting in the extended entry.

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl

--AZ-01: Rick Renzi

--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth

--CA-04: John Doolittle

--CA-11: Richard Pombo

--CA-50: Brian Bilbray

--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave

--CO-05: Doug Lamborn

--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell

--CT-04: Christopher Shays

--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan

--FL-16: Joe Negron

--FL-22: Clay Shaw

--ID-01: Bill Sali

--IL-06: Peter Roskam

--IL-10: Mark Kirk

--IL-14: Dennis Hastert

--IN-02: Chris Chocola

--IN-08: John Hostettler

--IA-01: Mike Whalen

--KS-02: Jim Ryun

--KY-03: Anne Northup

--KY-04: Geoff Davis

--MD-Sen: Michael Steele

--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht

--MN-06: Michele Bachmann

--MO-Sen: Jim Talent

--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns

--NV-03: Jon Porter

--NH-02: Charlie Bass

--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson

--NM-01: Heather Wilson

--NY-03: Peter King

--NY-20: John Sweeney

--NY-26: Tom Reynolds

--NY-29: Randy Kuhl

--NC-08: Robin Hayes

--NC-11: Charles Taylor

--OH-01: Steve Chabot

--OH-02: Jean Schmidt

--OH-15: Deborah Pryce

--OH-18: Joy Padgett

--PA-04: Melissa Hart

--PA-07: Curt Weldon

--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick

--PA-10: Don Sherwood

--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee

--TN-Sen: Bob Corker

--VA-Sen: George Allen

--VA-10: Frank Wolf

--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick

--WA-08: Dave Reichert

Why Bush's Lack of Intelligence Mattered

Back in 2000 when it appeared that the next President would preside over a continuation of the brief Pax Clintonia, Republican supporters argued that it didn't matter that Bush wasn't the brightest bulb in the bunch. After all he wouldn't be called upon to do much and if something did pop up, he'd have good people around him to advise him and do the real work. Or not.

Iraq has been the best example of why it matters that our President is an unintelligent man who was spoiled as a child (and adult) by his parents and their rich friends. I've seen students like Bush. They're the ones who blow off a class for a semester and then come begging for "extra credit" to compensate for the failing grade on the final exam. That's exactly what Bush is doing now. It turns out that all that talk about "Stay The Course" that we heard from Bush wasn't really what he meant. He hasn't told us exactly what he did mean (he hasn't figured it out that far yet) but he's very clear that it's not fair of the librul media to characterize his past statements as "Stay The Course."

Sound familiar? How many version of the reason we invaded in the first place did hear? First it was that Iraq had WMDs. Then it was that Iraq was involved in 9/11. Then it was to establish Iraqi Democracy. That last one has since been scaled down to "stable" in many circles.

It was the same with Katrina. His first response was a non-response. Then when he saw that people were annoyed by this, he did a lame fly over in Air Force One. Then people were still annoyed. So he went to visit his good buddy, Trent Lott down in Mississippi and promised to get him aid so that the Senator could rebuild his vacation home. Ooops, what about that major US city under 20 feet of water? Better put the image people on that one. So they set up generators and flood lights in one of the few picturesque dry spots and did the whole "look Presidential" act.

Bush consistently screws up initial responses to crises and thinks he can just start over as if his first response never happened. He learned how to do that when he was a spoiled, unintelligent little rich boy in boarding school. There were many of us (a majority actually) who saw this and expected this. But we all know what happened.

Now we have a chance to stop the national decline. We can impose accountability on this man for the first time in his entire life! VOTE! VOTE DEMOCRAT! GET YOUR NEIGHBORS TO VOTE! GET TURN OUT UP! HUGE TURN OUT!

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Nobel Prize-Winning Joke

Dr. Peter Agre received the Nobel Prize for Chemistry this year, 2006. He was interviewed on the Colbert show. At one point during the interview, he observed with some humility that a monkey could have done such and so. Colbert asked if the monkey could get a nobel prize for throwing his own feces. After a pause, Dr. Agre replied, "That's the economics prize."

That's the most awesome economics related comment since President Truman lamented, "Give me a one-handed economist!" (he was tired of hearing, "on the one hand... but on the other hand...").

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Congratulations Bell Curve!

Hi Everyone,

A little happy news for a change! Bell Curve and his lovely wife have added a new data point to the world. An 8 pound baby girl. Bell Curve reports that both Mother and Data Point are doing fine but Daddy is having difficulty sleeping.

Speculation that Data Point has already demonstrated remarkable ability in mathematics is probably unsubstantiated.

Congratulations!!

Pulling Out Could Make Iraq Worse - We should pull out anyway

OK, about the only defense of the Republican "stay the course" policy in Iraq is that pulling out would make the situation worse (this is of course granting that the only choices are continue as before and leave). But I argue that even if pulling out would make Iraq worse we should pull out anyway.

When we pull out there will be an increase in violence. It just doesn't matter when we pull out, the situation in Iraq will deteriorate. I've seen a number of recent studies on civil wars and civil wars with third party interventions and the evidence is pretty good that "letting them fight it out" ultimately is the only solution. Third party interventions don't end civil wars, they prolong them at a lower level of violence or, at best, supress them until that third party goes away. At that point, the level of violence spikes and the belligerents resume "fighting it out."

So the question for the US is not should we stay and solve the problem or leave and let the problem get worse. Solving the problems in Iraq is not in our power. All we can do is get in the way of two or three (or more!) armed factions that have already begun to fight it out. Our choice is how long are we going to stand between the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds in Iraq? Keep in mind that every day we stand there we lose young lives, money and political capital on the world scene.

This is EXACTLY the situation many of us who opposed the war in the first place predicted. Now we have to pay the piper. The question is how many dances are we going to pay for. I say the fewer the better. Start pulling out now!

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

A Time to Bear Witness

Keith Olbermann's commentary tonight, 10/18/06, blows the humorous one posted below in a prior post out of the water! Finally, somebody with a microphone far greater than mine has publicly linked Bush's lies - he calls them lies - to those of Roosevelt in interning the Japanese, to Wilson in the Red Scare, and to Adams in the Alien and Sedition acts. Finally, someone has had the balls to publicly take George Bush's tedious warnings that "history will judge whether we have taken the threat seriously" and ridiculed them. Instead, he said that the real threat this generation faces is George W. Bush. Yes, he said that. Olbermann is a brave man. He also said, btw, exactly what I did, that the Military Commissions Act is not about just aliens, because if they call you an alien, there is nothing you can do to get a hearing. Would this Attorney General help you, he asked? He is right. This is not just a moment to blog, or even to vote. It time to start bearing witness by risking what really matters. I strongly recommend you all watch and pass it on to as many people as you can. Speak out. Be vocal even to those in power. And get ready to resist if they steal this election.

Here is the link to text and video.

The Outside Gamble

Fusion is the turtle in the race to develop sustainable energy; it is the outside gamble that just might win.

In November, seven of the largest and richest nations in the world (China, India, the U.S., the E.U., Russia, Japan, and South Korea) will sign the final agreement to begin work on the $12 billion international thermonuclear experimental reactor, ITER. (Incidentally, the acronym no longer officially stands for anything: apparently, they decided "thermonuclear" was bad marketing.) You can find descriptions of ITER from the official ITER website, from the AAAS, and from Wikipedia.

First proposed in 1985, the giant tokomak in Cadarache, France will take 10 years to build, assuming the project stays on schedule. Second only to the International Space Station, ITER will be the most expensive international experimental collaboration in history. If ITER succeeds, its successor (oddly dubbed DEMO) should be a commercial fusion power plant up and running by 2040. The catch is that nobody knows for sure if ITER will work. It's not called "experimental" for nothing.

So far, no tokomak has ever generated more power than it consumes, but the bigger the plasma chamber, the more efficient it has become. The working assumption therefore is that if you just build one big enough, you'll get a working fusion reactor. The largest tokomak currently in existence, JET, has a plasma volume of about 40 cubic meters and produces at best 16 MW of power, only 70% of what it takes to run. ITER will have a plasma volume of over 800 cubic meters and is predicted to produce 500 MW of excess power--a tenfold amplifcation of the input power.

There are a number of physicists who believe this is the wrong approach. They worry that instabilities in the plasma field will inhibit power production; they worry about safety. They believe that the attempt to make the equivalent of a toroidal stellar core is not the way to go: instead, they believe a fundamental breakthrough in thinking--such as perhaps extremely high-powered lasers pummeling puffs of gas--might permit tabletop fusion. (Anyone remember "Mr. Fusion" from Back to the Future?)

Still, the scientific community has decided to back the horse they know best and have pushed hard for two decades to get the consortium of seven nations to pony up the billions needed for the ambitious experiment. It is astonishing to me that so few people know of this vast undertaking. Turtle though it may be, fusion is the only power source that has potential to up-end geopolitics and re-write the rules of global climate change. If ITER succeeds, November 2006 may go down in history as the beginning of the end of the era of fossil fuels. Of course, ITER will require sustained political will to see it through to its planned operational date of 2017.

Let's just hope "Cadarache" is not French for "Waxahachie."

Western Ascendance

With the exception of Tom Foley (D-WA) who lost the house to Gingrich in 1994, there has never been a Speaker of the House nor a Majority Leader of the Senate from the West. This year, if the astonishing-yet-still-plausible occurs and Democrats sweep both houses, we should have a House Speaker from California (Pelosi) and a Majority Leader from Nevada (Reid.) Just thought it was an interesting sign that the West is coming into its own politically. May they do better than Foley.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Worst. LAW. Ever.

Today President Bush signed into law the "Military Commissions Act." This formally codifies the Bush Administration's horrific practice of indefinite detention without charge, trial, or chance to appeal; it permits military tribunals to sentence people to death based on "evidence" won by torture, without even giving the accused the chance to hear the evidence against them. And perhaps worst of all, by destroying some of our most basic liberties, it makes us all more vulnerable to terrorism. Appalling.

[Update by Bell Curve] Keith Olbermann has a great take on the new law. Video embedded below. Worth a watch.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Free Lynne

Civil rights lawyer Lynne Stewart will be sentenced today giving material support to terrorists, defrauding the government and making false statements becaise she failed abide by special rules the government imposed on her client,radical Egyptian cleric Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, to prevent him from communicating with his followers. She faces 30 years in prison for passing a press release to Reuters on behalf of her client. She is a wife and a 67 year old grandmother of 13. She has breast cancer. She serves mostly low-income and minority clients and is known to be quite liberal in her views. She claims that she was trying to help her client and that she was naïve about the changes to rules after 9/11. She has since repented and recognized her mistake. Her right to practice law has been stripped.

The case was originally dismissed by the US district court, but was reissued by then US Attorney General Ashcroft, who announced a new indictment of her personally. Even Ashcroft had to admit that her press release had no repercussions.

Stewart claims that she was simply providing assistance to her imprisoned client. One concern that she has is that if sentenced to 30 years in prison, she will subjected to terrorism laws that would forbid any form of communication with her family or others. It is a prime case where a US citizen, white educated, “like us” could be treated no differently than Abdel Rahman was. And in a twisted irony, it is a civil rights attorney. I don’t think such a punishment fits the crime.

I worry that this will place defenders under the same risk that journalists now face, imprisonment for doing their job. The whole thing reeks to me. What do the Citizen’s think?

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