Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, January 15, 2007

Christian Conservatives Abort McCain's Candidacy

One of the most important figures in the Christian Conservative movement, Dr. James Dobson, has announced that he will not support John McCain (R-AZ) as a candidate for President under any circumstances. The CNN.com story is here.

This development is interesting for a number of reasons.

First, we've talked about McCain's prospects before. When he's come up in our conversations several of us have suggested that he might be able to win a national general election but seems unlikely to win the Republican nomination.

Second, this is an example of a party activist sacrificing electability in the general election for the sake of maintaining control of the party for his faction. This came up in our conversations about electoral reform etc.

Third, if Dobson thinks McCain is unacceptable, what must he think of the pro-life former mayor of New York City, Rudy Guiliani? This statement is a declaration that the GOP nomiation is wide open.

Finally, polls show that Giuliani and McCain are the most widely popular Republican candidates. Democrats should be very pleased at Dobson's comments. If the Christian Right uses the 2008 election to consolidate their internal control of the Republican Party, the Democrats may have a chance to put their chosen candidate up against a Republican candidate with limited appeal, easily portrayed as an extremist.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Slippery people like Dobson are just as likely to change their minds about such things as McCain has been. Dobson is a lowlife with no morals or credibility. Expect McCain to make nice to Dobson, offer him some cookies, and he'll flip. I don't read as much into this as RBR does.  

// posted by LTG

The Law Talking Guy said...

Btw, Duncan Hunter, a wingnut from eastern SD County, is running for President now. Woo-hoo! He's Duke Cunningham's virtual twin brother. He also cooperated with Cunningham in procuring some of the contracts for which Cunningham received bribes. Hunter may have done it free of charge, however.

As many have predicted, the median Republican voter is now further to the right than ever, and the median Republican primary voter even more so. I don't credit Dobson with anything, but I do think you will see a religious nut nominated by the GOP in 2008 - someone who makes GWBush look normal by comparison.

Anonymous said...

No on eis mentioning that Chuck Hegel has announced. He is very conservative, but willing to hit the Administration hard on Iraq. He is a pro business, anti-Kyoto, free trade veteran from the heartland. That said, he is a senator which means he has a big time legislative record. Among his more notable policies would be to raise the retirement age by 1 year for anyone retiring after 2022. He mentioned bringing back the draft. He also worked closely with McCain on the foreign relations committee. And he is liked by the media because he *appears* to be quite up front about his views. I stress the word *appears* for a reason.

I think the Republican nomination is open, but not "wide" open as RBR says. In fact, Dobson's pulling away from McCain may be in part a repsonse to Hegel jumping into the race. 

// posted by USWest

Anonymous said...

I like Hagel as much as I like any Republican, which probably means he has no shot at the Republican nomination. Right now the smart money is on Brownback, but Huckabee will probably make a late push.

Of course, so much can happen between now and then ... 

// posted by Bell Curve

Anonymous said...

The smart money is on Brownback? That surprises me. I had not heard that. I guess I'm still betting on McCain. I mean, I'm hoping for someone like Brownback, because I think he's too conservative, even for Bush's America...

Anonymous said...

Huckabee is probably going to run and he and Brownback will be fighting for the backing of the Christian Right movementarians.

Hegel is from Nebraska and he has a reputation of being about as moderate as you can be and still get elected in Nebraska. But I've seen candidates like him before. He's conservative on the stuff that has high impact and low publicity and moderate on stuff with low impact and high publicity.

I know US West didn't invent this term or use it with the intent it usually is. But I have to say I've been getting more and more uncomfortable with the term "heartland." It has a real exclusionary tone to it: "We're the real Americans and you aren't." It's the same with people who describe their part of the country as "God's Country." Give me a break.

But really, the median American probably lives in a city not a rural area and probably lives in the Great Lakes region not Great Plains the South.  

// posted by RBR

Anonymous said...

Ha, did you hear Colbert's "The word" on Worry? He makes fun of Missouri. It's disease of progressive policies will spread! He doesn't like seening a "heartland" state acting like a "coastal elite". Just look at how many other states it touches! Check it out. It's funny 

// posted by USWest

Anonymous said...

The smart money is still on McCain, because he hs the big name recognition, and his positions are much closer to the religious right than Dobson is pretending. I disagree with Bell Curve - nobody knows who Brownback is. There aren't really that many Republicans who want to audition right now. 

// posted by LTG

Bell Curve said...

Here's the link  to the Colbert clip US West was mentioning (I think).

Anonymous said...

It also seems that McCain is desperate to win Dobson's support . Gag. 

// posted by Bell Curve