Germany Land Elections

Hi Everyone,

Germany is a federal system, and the constituent provinces are called Lander. The Land of Nordrhein- Westfalen had an election yesterday. The Social Democrats (SPD) have not lost an election there in 39 years. But they lost yesterday. The Christian Democrats (CDU) won big there. This is a very industrial, very urban Land so it's very surprising that the CDU won. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (SPD) is now presiding over a coalition of SPD and Green that has lost all 10 Land elections since the national elections last year. In response to this latest setback, Schroeder has called new elections which the CDU is expected to win. You can read the BBC.Com story here. You can read the story from Die Zeit here.

Schroeder narrowly won the national election last year by taking a very anti-American stance. His party has done a terrible job, however, fixing structural economic problems that have built up over the decades. So Schroeder won last year using anti-American feelings to compensate for economic stagnation. Now, those problems are overwhelming any differences between the CDU and SPD on foreign policy.

Does this represent a march to the right in Germany? Probably not. The reasons people are voting against the SPD are things like SPD cuts in welfare benefits, persistent high unemployment and layoffs. If people vote for the CDU instead of the SPD, it would be impossible for the CDU to claim a mandate for right wing economic policy. Indeed, the CDU has always had a strong faction supporting the welfare state. And the modern German welfare state was established largely by CDU led governments. Experts all agree that the German welfare system is in need of immediate reform. However, the diffused institutional structure of German government (much like the American government) makes such big reforms very difficult. The SPD has been beating its head against the wall on this for years and it seems it will soon be the CDU's turn again.

Bush supporters may be getting ready to say "See Blair supported the US invasion of Iraq and he's still in power and Schroeder opposed it and he's losing power!" But it would be more accurate to say that both the British and German elections show that voters are primarily concerned with local issues. So Blair's party retained their majority (narrowly) despite Blair's support for the war and Schroeder's party has lost in Nordrhein-Westfalen despite Schroeder's opposition to it.

Comments?