Everyone is talking about the electoral horse race (see polling report.com and other polling links on this blog). The national poll horse race is pretty tight. Some polls have Kerry ahead, some have Bush ahead or have them tied. But we should all know by now that the election is not a national popular vote contest. It is a series state by state elections. State by state results are available but you usually have to pay for them (or check out the LA Times interactive electoral vote map/calculator which gives the most recent poll results when you move your mouse over each state). But you can still guess at some things from these nationwide polls. Here are some things I've been noticing and speculating wildly about.
Bush seems to do better in polls that use "adults" or "registered voters" as opposed to "likely voters." Why is this interesting? Republicans usually do better among "likely voters." Republicans do better among those demographic groups that vote the most often (wealthy old white men). Bush support may have a critical weakness: suburbs. Suburbanites are likely voters (and how!) and they tend to be socially progressive, fiscally conservative. States like Ohio are full of them. States like Alabama have very few of them.
Second, Zogby reports a majority (53%) of respondents say it is "time for someone new" in the White House. This number has been over 50% for months. Zogby used this question to accurately predict the Gore-Bush 2000 popular vote (he's the only pollster who successfully predicted that Gore would win the popular vote).
Finally, polls reported in polling report.com (see link) show that voters prefer a Congress controlled by the Democrats by about 50% to 40% (and some undecideds) depending on the poll. Now, this is nationwide poll and nationwide polls are even less useful for Congressional races than they are for the Presidential race. However, these results have been stable for months and may indicate a big turnout for the Democrats' base. The big caveat on this one is that Republicans have been able to redraw the Congressional districts in a lot of states to maximize their chances of winning the most seats. Also, most voters dislike Congress but like their local representative (regardless of party).
Monday, June 21, 2004
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 2:26 PM