The War, Its Consequences and Good Judgment

Something US West said in a recent comment has got me thinking. She said that Obama has still not shown that he has good judgement - aside from the war. And she said that wasn't enough. OK, fair enough. But the war is a pretty big thing to point to.

When Bush started the call to war, he argued that Saddam Hussein was in league with Al Qaeda and that he was working on developing nuclear and chemical weapons. Neither turned out to be true. Bush's supporters will say that at the time, it was a consensus in the intelligence community (they most like to point to French reports) that the WMD claim was correct. US West (I believe) has posted about how citing the French reports in support of the invasion is playing fast and loose with what the French intelligence reports actually said.

But let's talk about the consequences of the war. First, the war has killed between 600,000 and a million Iraqis. Second, over 3,000 US military deaths due to hostile fire (along with several hundred military deaths among our allies). If we include deaths due to vehicle accidents and other non-hostile fire causes, the number approaches 4,000. Third, it has cost the US over $500 billion and counting (about $275 million per day). Some reports are that the expected costs could top $1 trillion.

The tragedy of the human costs are obvious. The economic costs are nevertheless important. First, our national deficit is due in large part to the war (and Bush's tax cuts). Second, the war itself is retarding the world oil supply by keeping Iraq, one of the world's leading producers, producing far below capacity. Third, the deficit is closely tied to the recent rise in interest rates which lead to the wave of foreclosures. Fourth, our deficit is also tied to the high cost of oil because the value of the dollar is lower than its been in years. Since oil is purchased in dollars, it now takes more of them to buy the same amount of oil (even without the supply problems). The rise in oil prices is driving prices up for everything - inflation.

So how does this relate to good judgement? Because it was all predictable - and predicted - back in 2003 when Bush called for the war. Numerous academics predicted these dire consequences. Indeed, I can't think of any reputable political scientists or international relations scholars who said the war would be worth it (except for Condy Rice). What's more reports that the Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11 and wasn't preparing nuclear or chemical weapons were circulating even before the war started.

And yet, Bush pressed for war and many in the Senate - including Democrats went along with it. The Republican who went along can say they were following their party leader - but then they have to explain why they chose such an idiot to lead them. Democrats who voted for the war either did not foresee the outcomes discussed above or they were more willing to risk them than risk going against a President who was (shocking though it may seem now) was popular at the time. Hillary Clinton was one of those Democrats.

In 2003 she voted in favor of Bush's war resolution. Since then she has taken a gradually more and more anti-war stance. At first she was echoing people like Lieberman when she said, "failure is not an option." But as it became more and more clear that Democrats would not tolerate a pro-war candidate, she modified her position to favor withdrawal.

The reason Obama can get mileage out of his saying that he showed good judgement on Iraq is because it is probably the one decision in the last 20 years that had the highest stakes for our country. And Clinton made a grotesquely wrong choice on it. Any other decision, about which particular type of health care reform to favor or which amendment to vote for in some Senate bill, pales in comparison.