Florida Exit Polls

You can see the MSNBC exit polls from Florida here.

Of some interest...Voters who made their decision a month before the election (i.e. before the Iowa Caucus), prefered Clinton over Obama 63% to 27%. Early voters prefered Clinton to Obama 50% to 31%. During this period voters would be disproportionately swayed by name recognition and celebrity. These groups made up 33% and 26% of the total voters respectively.

It is only in the last month in which the news coverage has been greater, the debates have actually gotten voter attention and the campaigns have really kicked in gear. Voters who made their decision in the last month prefered Obama to Clinton 47% to 40%.

Voters who made their decision in the last week prefered Obama to Clinton 39% to 31%.

Voters who made their decision in the last three days prefered Obama to Clinton 46% to 38%.

And Voters who made their decision the day of the election prefered Clinton 34% to 30% (with Edwards getting 29%). This is interesting to me because it looks like people who decide how to vote the day of the election looked like they vote more or less randomly.

This all suggests to me that voters who were paying attention to the campaigns in other states and to the brief and lopsided campaign in Florida, picked Obama by a substantial margin. Clinton won Florida largely because over half of the voters made up their minds before they had much information on which to base their decision. I have heard that this trend may be repeated in California.

This has implications for how the political situation is playing out. It suggests that the more people pay attention to the campaigns, the more they like Obama and the less they like Clinton. This may mean that Florida is not the kind of "bell weather" that Dr. S. hopes it will be. If I were a betting man, I'd look at this data and predict tightening races on Super Tuesday even in California. I certainly would not expect a 20% win for Clinton except maybe in New York.