Of course, it takes a while for polls reflecting Iowa's results to come out. Over the weekend, we began to see the effect for Obama in NH. Nationwide other results are coming out. 10 mins ago, Rasmussen announced that in S. Carolina, it's 42-30 Obama over HRC. His 4-day tracking poll (so, Thur-Sun) has HRC down to a 4pt lead. Unless HRC does better than expected in NH, it is going to be hard for her to regroup in Mich, FL, or Super Tues. The Nevada Culinary union has not yet endorsed anyone, and they are expected to be pivotal. that will be a big test for HRC and Obama.
Monday, January 07, 2008
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Gallup's national poll conducted 1/4 - 1/06 now has Obama and Clinton even at 33% apiece. I suspect that we will see Obama with leads in the next polls, as the tracking polls reflect an electorate that absorbed Iowa's results.
Gallup also shows Huckabee leading nationwide, although other national polls show Huckabee/McCain in a tight race with both near a very low 20%.
From today's WSJ:
"The road may get harder immediately after New Hampshire. The all-important Culinary Workers union in Nevada, the next state to vote on Jan. 19, is considering backing Sen. Obama a day after a New Hampshire win, say some high-ranking Democrats. The support of the state's largest union by far would virtually hand him a victory in the labor-dominated caucuses there, Democrats say. And the Clinton campaign is considering effectively ceding South Carolina, which votes a week later. Her once-strong support in the state's large black population eroded and Sen. Obama opened a big lead in polls after Iowa's caucus results energized many blacks with the prospect that a man of their race stands a realistic chance of being nominated."
Nevada would be huge.
Wave receding
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