Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Sunday, October 24, 2010

The Limits of the Welfare State

Hi Everyone,


US West's post about the protests in France provoked a response from me which provoked a response from LTG. All of that got me thinking it would be interesting to open a thread about what the limits of the welfare state are. I'll get things started by saying that there are two limits: a practical limit (i.e. what society can afford), and a philosophical limit (i.e. what society is obligated to provide).

For the purposes of this discussion let's use a really broad definition of the welfare state that includes direct transfer payments, government funded pensions, subsidies, funding for public education, bail outs of big companies to prevent layoffs, public works projects etc. I'm thinking of pretty much everything a government can spend money other than the military.

I'll start with the practical limit first. Obviously this varies by country quite a lot. I think the obvious hard limit is that governments cannot afford to risk ruining their national economies for the sake of providing additional welfare benefits. There is a point at which borrowing to pay for welfare states becomes unsustainable. There is also a point at which taxes become so burdensome that it hinders economic growth significantly. The Tea Party crowd are of the opinion that the US has already reached both of these practical limits. I disagree. We are among the least taxed people in a democracy and we currently pay among the lowest tax rates in modern American history. To the extent that our debt and deficit have become a problem it is largely because of the exceptionally low taxes that we pay (and the military adventures in which the previous administration embroiled us). A marginal increase in our tax rate could solve the other problem. This will be politically controversial but I tend to vote for candidates that advocate this solution.

Countries like France are bumping up against their practical limit. Debt and deficit levels are very high in France and their tax rate is relatively high (especially when you include sales taxes and value added taxes). They have to make adjustments and since they are probably at the point where they get diminishing if not negative returns to raising taxes the best way to make that readjustment is to reduce benefits. This will be political unpopular and people have a right to protest their reduced benefits. But if I was a voter in France I'd vote for a reduction in those benefits for the good of the society and the long term sustainability of the welfare state.

As for the philosophical limit, I think the purpose of the welfare state should be to ensure that being born with the deck stacked against you economically or having made poor decisions should not be a fatal condition. Basic human needs such as shelter, food, access to health care and education should be provided by the state if an individual cannot provide for them themselves. But I do not think that society has an obligation to ensure that everyone has a prosperous life style. We have a right to expect that our basic human needs will be met and it is reasonable to expect society to be willing to invest in our education to make us more productive members of society. But I do not believe we have a right to expect much beyond that.

Unless we are willing to insist that everyone regardless of their effort on their own behalf (or on society's behalf) is entitled to an identical standard of living, we must allow for variance in life style according to the variance of people's luck of birth, decision making in life and their own work effort. I contend that allowing for such variation is desirable because it provides a useful incentive for individuals to work not only on their own behalf but also on behalf of society. But at the very least the practical limit on the welfare state probably makes it necessary. Once we agree that such variation in living standards is desirable or at least necessary, then any debate about the welfare state boils down to where exactly we should draw the line for benefits levels based on what we can afford.

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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

French Protests Are Over the Top

French President Sarkozy wants to raise the minimum retirement age from 60 to 62 and the age for receiving full state pensions from 65 to 67. This would be gradually introduced, adding 4 months to the requirement each year, reaching full implementation by 2018. The reforms he proposes are quite modest and much needed. The government has been borrowing from banks to make pension payments and now, with debt rising, the French government can no longer postpone reforms. Sarkozy, I think is correct to push reform now. With the Greek crisis, attention is mounting about national debt across Europe. The French system is actually quite flexible when it comes to retirement.

In general, the mandatory retirement age in France is 65. However, under current rules, one can opt for retirement at age 60 so long as one has worked 41-42 years. (Civil servants have to have 40 years of service). In 2008, the law changed so that mandatory retirement age is 70. So once one hits 60, retirement is an option. But one can also opt to work longer. In some professions, there are “special retirement regimes” such as public transport, mining, bus driving, etc. where retirement can start at 50-55. Then there are the early retirement programs. For instance, women earn two years for each child. These will remain unaffected by Sarkozy’s reform.

Students are protesting with the workers because they see the increase in age as a threat to their employment. Unemployment among the young is notoriously high, 23% among 15-24 year-olds. So they would like those at the top to cycle out so that they can cycle in.

The French have tinkered with the system for years. In 1981, Mitterrand actually reduced the mandatory retirement age from 65 to 60, something Sarkozy is now criticizing, saying that it postponed the inevitable, making it harder to reform now. In 1993, the government increased the number of years required for private sector employees to work from 37.5 to 40. It wasn’t until 2003 that the government succeeded in extending public sector employees to 40 years.

Currently only 12-15% of French workers between the ages of 60-65 are working (20% in the US). The average age of retirement age in France is 59 years (64 in the US). For those of us born in the US after 1959, the age for full benefits is 67. This change was made with little notice back in 1983. The earliest that Americans can start receiving benefits is 62. Civil servants are eligible for retirement after 30 years of service. There is no mandatory retirement age in America. (For a nice round up on retirement ages in OECD, visit The Society for Human Resources Management page.)

Many French workers received 50-60% of their incomes under state run programs, plus there are the company pensions and union benefits. Civil servants receive up to 75% of their final salary for life. Retirement benefits for American civil servants are based on the last 3 years of their income. In the current economy, this is encouraging many people to stay in the workforce longer so as to increase their last 3 years of income, and thus their benefits.

French students are blockading refineries. They may be arrested for this because under French law, preventing those who wish to from doing is punishable with prison time and possible civil penalties. Some 20 of 219 refinery are blocked. 4000 gas stations of 12,500 are out of gas. Distributors are pooling their reserves for distribution. In the end, the French Senate will approve the reform and the French economy will have taken a hit as a result of fuel shortages. So given the options for protest movements, I'll keep the whacky Tea Partiers.

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Monday, October 11, 2010

"The Beats" vs. the "Tea Partiers"

I thought I'd share this rather interesting take on the "Tea Partiers" from the New York Times Book Review .

All protest movements are the same at their base- they are often against some notion of "elitism" and they are often driven by some sense of marginalization. I didn't know much about the "Beats", so I found this article rather interesting.

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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Religious Knowledge VS Religiosity

Pew did a research study on Americans' knowledge of religion. It probably should not surprise us that the more religious you are the less you seem to know about religion. This is, of course, does not apply to our own Law Talking Guy. He is certainly an outlier. But the trend is pretty clear. If you click on the link provided in the first sentence you can take a short version of the quiz yourself and compare to different demographic groups. This story from the Daily Telegraph in the UK reports the full survey results.


I'm an atheist. I do not believe in the supernatural. I scored a 93% on the quiz and only missed scoring 100% because I misread a question and it won't let you edit your answers. Atheists and Jews performed the best overall. Hispanic Catholics the worst. According to the Daily Telegraph story, the region of the US that performed the worst was the South, the most religious demographic group in the country by far.

I think this shows evidence of a trend we already knew about. Namely that education and religiosity are generally negatively correlated. The better educated you are, the less likely you are to be strongly religious.

I also think this shows evidence of something most atheists know but most religious people refuse to acknowledge. Most atheists have given a good deal more thought to religion than most religious people have.

From a political perspective this really shows where politicized religious conservatism is coming from. In contrast to how they see themselves, the religious right is not a movement of orthodox religious people trying to apply to policy the Bible's teachings honestly and faithfully. It is far more accurate to say that they claiming the Bible supports the social views that they hold independently of any serious religious consideration or examination. In short, they are little different how they come to their views than the semi-literate graduates of the madrasahs in the Middle East and South Asia. We who oppose the religious right have thought this for years. But now we have a little chance to say "we told you so."

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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Your Modern GOP

Michelle Malkin: it's okay for a Republican Senate candidate to say she dabbled in witchcraft because she was using that anecdote to explain why Halloween is bad.

No further commentary needed.

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Are Democrats Institutionally Constrained to be Wussies?

I was thinking about this the other day and wanted to bounce it off the inter-tubes.


If Republicans are the party of the status quo (or reactionaries) and the Democrats are the party of progressivism and the US constitution's system of checks and balances (and supermajority requirements in the Senate) lead to a strong bias in favor of the status quo, are the Democrats doomed by the institutional context of the US government to be a bunch of wussies? That is, are they doomed to forever come up short of their supporters' expectations?

Republican have less of this problem. If they do nothing other than block changes to the status quo, they can make a real claim of success to their base. It is only when the Republican base starts demanding a return to the policies of the 19th century that Republicans run into the same problem that the Democrats always have.

And of course this means that the Republican base will ALWAYS be more supportive of their party when it is in the minority. Democrats look at their party in minority and complain (unreasonably) about how the Democrats don't do anything to advance the cause of progress. Republicans though see intrinsic value in obstructionism. Since our system is designed to favor exactly that strategy, Republicans have an advantage.

What do you think?

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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Noting the Absurd

There are moments when I suddenly get a real sarcastic mood going and everything I hear in the news seems absurd. So here are some random thoughts on some of the absurdities that have caught my eye. They probably aren’t worth much for commentary, but maybe John Stewart will pick up a few ideas. And there is something in here for everyone.

The UN is meeting this week to “re-energize” the fight against poverty. HRC is promoting the use of “low-emission” cook stoves in “pre-industrialized” nations to improve the quality of life. Well, just great. Let them live longer so they can enjoy that poverty longer.

This comes the same week that the census bureau released U.S. poverty figures (useless as they are since they probably "mis-underestimates") showing a 3% rise on 2009. Well everyone, better pick up your low-emission cooking stove now. You can get the cheap model in straight black or a higher end model in your choice of colors.

The Fed says it’s ready to do more to aid the economic recovery. But we all know that the the “recession” is officially over. So what is there to recover? This is new norm.

The Vatican is involved in a money laundering probe. Well, surprise, surprise. How else was it going to shield its cash from the lawyers of molestation victims? Indulgence anyone? Sale next week at St. Peter’s- the sight of money in the temple is bound to bring Jesus back.

I just got back from Switzerland. Great trip, fine country. Loved it. The travel itself sucks. Jammed into to 2 inches of space, nearly threw my back out trying to climb over the armrest so I could get out to use the toilet, the indignity and stupidity of airport screening, having United Airlines remind you of your plight by telling you every 10 minutes that there are seats available in economy plus (an extra $100 per seat) where you get an extra 5 inches (I won’t go there on that Freudian publicity), being death marched past the 1st class cabin with its 6 seats that take up the space of 10 in economy (oh, but they get to board crossing over a red floor mat, you don’t.) etc. All that said, the airline profits are up. They are expecting $9 bil in profits this year. Gee, glad to see that the $1400 /ticket I paid went to a good cause.

Brazil is holding elections now. Dilma Rousseff is running strong. Check her out on the web. Where do you think the inspiration for her campaign logo came from? Posers.
Among the many candidates for several governmental positions, I hear there are entertainers, such as a clown called “Tiririca” running for the chamber of Deputies. There are also former residents of mental wards. Glad to see we aren’t the only ones who bring our nuts out at election time.

And a sure sign that pop cultural has passed me by: I listened to a local radio station and heard the ever romantic lycis from Jordan Sparks, "You're on my heart just like a tattoo. Just like a tattoo. I'll always have you ..."
Sigh.

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Saturday, September 18, 2010

The New American Conservatism

Christine O'Donnell is the GOP candidate for US Senate in Delaware.


Some interesting facts about her:

She makes a lot of noise about "fiscal responsibility" but: She had her house foreclosed on by the bank for failure to make mortgage payments on a $90,000 loan (that's a fairly small mortgage and must have been a really small monthly mortgage payment!). It was about to be sold by the bank when she sold it first to her own Senate campaign's lawyer (do you smell a scandal brewing? that's fishier than anything involving the Whitewater investigation that plagued the Clinton administration for most of its two terms).

She owes $11,000 in backed taxes.

She was sued (successfully) by her alma mater because she hadn't paid her tuition.

She also still owes $23,000 to the staff of her failed 2008 Senate campaign.

But she's got all the far right wing pseudo-Christian fundamentalist street cred. For example, there is this little blast from her youth where she got herself on MTV arguing that masturbation was tantamount to adultery (but what if you masturbate while thinking about your spouse I'd ask). She also believes that "American scientific companies" are crossbreeding humans and animals. So she's a "Tea Party" favorite.

So what does this all mean? First, like Sarah Palin, O'Donnell is a publicity starved moron with little actual substance and a personal past full of hypocrisy. Her one and only skill is self-promotion.

To the extent she is a typical Tea Party activist/candidate, this shows us the true face of the Tea Party. The Tea Party is not the non-partisan, fiscal conservative movement it (and FOX News) wants to sell itself as. Rather they are just a rebranding of the Bush-Republicans that spend like drunken sailors and rant about their fringe religious views.

Candidates like this is why people like my father, a high income accountant in his 70s from a small midwestern town, have left the Republican party.

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Friday, September 17, 2010

Thoughts on the Midterm Elections

We are past Labor Day, past the primaries, and finally coming into the general election campaign for real. It has been a lousy summer for Democrats largely because the BP oil spill and an economic "stall" of sorts dampened the public enthusiasm and economic recovery that had been building in the Springtime. Voters are unhappy by and large, somewhate fearful, and uncertain about their future. The voter who is not a committed partisan is largely unenthusiastic about Democrats but uncertain and unsure about Republicans. The far-right (Tea Party) is making waves and headlines, but they have not convinced the independent voters, by and large, that the GOP offers a better alternative to solving the country's economic problems.

The GOP has not offered the kind of unified slate and platform that they did in 1994 with the Contract on America. This will hurt their chances for winning the Congress. In fact, the 'enthusiasm gap' between Democrats and Republicans gets all the press, but the more enthusiasm important gap right now is between mainstream Republicans and the Tea Partiers. As one might have expected after 2006 and 2008 shrank the size of the GOP electorate, the far right has nominated some very far right candidates. But this is not a normal strategy to win the Congress back. For that, one would have expected a move to the center. Democrats are moving there as quickly as they can, into the void Republicans are leaving with their primary ballots for Tea Party candidates.

A midterm is expected to be a referendum on the sitting president. Here, it may also be a referendum on the Tea Party. To the extent it is, it will help the Democrats. Today, Alaska's center-right Murkowski announced a right-in campaign against the Tea Partier Miller who narrowly beat her in the primary. This gives the Democrat a possible opening. In Delaware, the lurch rightward may cost the GOP an easy pickup. Florida is seeing the same dynamic. The big story of 2010 is the intra-party GOP fight right now. Betting on enthusiasm for an the party's base rather than a centrist candidate is a tough bet. Democrats are becoming more optimistic as they see this happen.

This is not to say that the Democrats haven't had their own primary battles. They have. But these have not produced a strong leftward shift. The only real losers (see Specter) were Democrats who were substantially to the right of their party or who (see Specter) weren't real Democrats. These battles have probably strengthened the Democrats.

So what do I expect? (1) there will be some better economic news in September and October. While it's too late for a game-changer in terms of economics (this I had expected in the summer), it is fair to say that the public will be more optimistic and more disposed to the current admnistration than it is now. In other words, we won't see the building momentum we saw in 1994. (2) Tea party candidates will cost the GOP some seats they might otherwise have gained. This gives the Democrats a very good chance of retaining the Senate and an even chance of retaining the House. (3) The polls have largely focused on "likely voters" with strong assumptions about heavy GOP enthusiasm and participation. I expect the polls to tighten in favor of the Democrats as these assumptions become more realistic. (4) It's going to be ugly. Democrats have to win by portraying their adversaries as too extreme to be elected, and the Tea Party only knows how to be abrasive and ugly to begin with.

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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

More on Glenn Beck's Idolatry

Glenn Beck is an idolator. That's right. He would put the US flag and constitution in a place that only God can occupy. I wanted to post these comments from the Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church in 2009 because I was struck by the condemnation of the notion of collective salvation. Yes, I know that individual salvation is a Protestant cornerstone, but it is wrong of him to claim that other doctrines have no place in Christian life. On NPR, an official of the Southern Baptist church called collective salvation an "oxymoron" - indicating that either (1) he doesn't know what an oxymoron is or (2) he is so closed minded he thinks of the idea as not just erroneous, but literally logically impossible and unthinkable. Not so fast. Of course, the concept of collective salvation is an old one in Eastern churches and has deep roots in Jewish theology.

Here are these remarks from last summer:

"The overarching connection in all of these crises has to do with the great Western heresy - that we can be saved as individuals, that any of us alone can be in right relationship with God. It's caricatured in some quarters by insisting that salvation depends on reciting a specific verbal formula about Jesus. That individualist focus is a form of idolatry, for it puts me and my words in the place that only God can occupy, at the center of existence, as the ground of all being. **** The I only emerges as we connect - and that is really what the word means: I am because we are, and I can only become a whole person in relationship with others. There is no "I" without "you," and in our context, you and I are known only as we reflect the image of the one who created us."

It's important to realize, then, that Beck and his ilk are not just mixing religion and politics in a very unholy and un-American way (and I mean unholy, because it is a desecration to try to pin the transcendental to such mundane elements as the Tea Party), but they are peddling a specific version of Protestantism that is sectarian in nature.

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Monday, August 30, 2010

Glenn Beck Attacks Obama's Religion

So Glenn Beck, fresh from his burlesque of a civil rights rally on the national mall (news flash: Martin Luther King, Jr. was not a talk show host), is now attacking President Obama's religious beliefs (not what Obama has said, but what Beck attributes to him). He attributes to Obama "liberation theology" which is a concept that Glenn Beck obviously does not understand. (It is primarily Roman Catholic in origin and was the subject of Pope John Paul II's condemnation, something continued by Pope Benedict XVI).

Two things stand out. First of all, attacking the President for his religious beliefs is a really Bad Idea for US politics. Americans (except for the fringe of evangelical/fundies) react pretty badly to such a blatant interjection of sectarianism into public life. The majority of Americans want a president who sounds like a Hallmark card, but don't want theological debates.

Second, the person who should be thinking about religion more is Beck, not the President. Let me repeat this so that every Christian (and Mormon) can hear it: God does not love America or Americans more than any other human beings. The United States of America does not have God's blessing any more than the Co-Principality of Andorra. The American Flag is not sacred. Our institutions are entirely of earth, not of Heaven. People have been trying to pull the trick of associating Jesus with a government ever since the Roman army murdered him. Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher. All is but plain vanity. Sadly, that vanity is the heart of Republican nationalistic religion. It is more fascist or Shinto in inspiration than it is Christian.

The Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was willing to die for his fellow man. Glenn Beck won't even countenance a mild tax increase on capital gains. He's never been asked to give up anything in his life for the common good. His only god is the Almighty Dollar. That's why Beck and his idiot fools will be gone tomorrow, but the Dream will remain.

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Thursday, August 19, 2010

What Obama and the Democrats Have Accomplished

A lot of people on the left are complaining about things President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress haven't done that they think he should have done. But let's take a look at some of things they have accomplished. This post idea comes to me as I see reports that the last combat troops are leaving Iraq today.


The Stimulus: It's unpopular these days and Republicans are fond of saying that it didn't work but I think it's clear that the stimulus saved a huge number of jobs and set a relatively firm bottom at a time when the economy looked to be on an uncontrollable downward spiral. Yes, it's increase in debt/deficit risks inflation down the road but I'll take the possibility of inflation tomorrow over the certainty of deflation today 10 times out of 10. The risk of deflation is still with us but the stimulus has staved off a deflationary spiral.

Health Care Reform: Again, the standard media line is that this is unpopular but the nature of that unpopularity should be seen in light of disappointment on the left that the bill did not go far enough. This is still a big step forward in US health care policy. That it was passed in the wake of a massive economic crisis and two wars (all dumped on this President and Congress by the outgoing Republicans) is astounding.

Getting out of Iraq: Aside from saving American lives, getting our combat troops out of Iraq will have long term economic benefits. If we stayed in Iraq it would be a budget buster for the foreseeable future.

I'm sure there are more things we could list but these three are huge.

Sure there are things yet to be done that we had hoped would be done by now (like immigration reform and the final closure of Guantanamo etc). But do the people who voted for Obama and Democrats so enthusiastically really want to punish the record above? Do they really want to elect people who would have us stop all government stimulus spending and instead cut taxes for the wealthy (the same things that encouraged the Bush-Bubble in the first place)? Do they really want to elect people who think that rationing health care based on personal wealth of the patients is OK? Do they really want to elect the people who lead us into Iraq and would have us still stuck there if they had been in power for the last 2 years?

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Bad News Bears

So my rosy predictions for the Fall are crumbling because the economy has taken a "pause" of sorts. The economic recovery has stalled and as the optimism of early Spring's job growth fades, so too have the President's numbers. For the first time in his presidency, his negatives outpace his positive ratings by a significant amount. Popularity ratings stuck around 45%. A look at the grahps and data shows that the president's popularity had approached 50/50 during the depths of the Health Care debate but had begun to climb back into positive territory before May. Then the oil spill in the gulf hit, with the perception of mishandling (note to president: next time, send the entire fifth fleet into the gulf and get accused of overreacting, not underreacting) and then the recovery stalled. You may recall that the unemployment rate actually climbed slightly in April because so many new people jumped into the workforce because they were optimistic about their chances. The unemployment rate has fallen back to 9.5% while the economy has shed a few jobs because people are leaving the workforce.

So this means bad news for the elections. Unless there are signs of economic recovery returning in the August reports out around Labor Day, the Fall will look grim for Democrats. Expect it to get uglier and uglier as the Dems realize they can only win by demonizing the Tea Party. And the Republicans will exacerbate this effort by running further to the right rather than to the
center. I still think that the loss of either house is unlikely, in part because the GOP was much more unpopular in 2006 and 2008 and it took two serious elections to swing the tide this far in favor of the Dems. That's a lot of ground to make up. It requires, for the GOP, taking senate seats in CA and Illinois, which seems very unlikely. But big gains, yes, that is looming.

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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Compensation for Federal Employees

Ok, I have been waiting for this. Here is a recent article from USATODAY that will turn heads. The grabbing headline "Federal workers earning double their private counterparts". OK, let's talk about this myth.

I am always curious about data like this because for me, it is more telling about the private workforce than the Federal workforce, of which I am a part. The private sector is exploiting its workers and reducing benefits while paying CEOs and bankers huge sums. The CEO of BP, for instance, is going to walk away with a nice sum. And they justify that because he had years of "good service" and it was part of his deal from the start. The government sector has maintained the good old middle class value of worker benefits and stability. It's the only place left where you can count on a paycheck. The real story of GS salaries is much more complex and nuanced than the general public is willing to tolerate. Where to begin . . . .

1) All Government service salaries are capped. The most any GS employee can make in salary is $155K. That means you have to be a GS15. All government salaries are public information. Want to see? Check here. To be a GS15 you have to climb up the latter, it isn't given for free. Within any GS rank, there are 10 steps before you turn over to the next rank. Many people retire at GS12 or 13 after years of service. To go from a GS11 to a GS12, you are looking at 10 years of strong performance.

2) Government employees have a nice health care plan. In fact, if you recall, Obama wanted this to be a model for the entire country until Republicans scuttled it.

3) Government employees do not change employers every 3-4 years. They stay and as the saying goes, "Slow and steady wins the race".

4) Pensions are not what they used to be. Currently, pensions are small but we have the equivalent of a 401K now. It's called the "Thrift Savings Plan". The plan is built around a small set of high-quality, straight-forward index funds with low management fees. The reason they do so well is because they are so big and so many people are participating. The government matches 100% the first 5% invested by the employee.

5) People who have been in the service since before 1984 were not able to draw social security and they didn't pay in. They had a pension and they paid into that. This was changed in 1984. We now pay in, but we don't have the pensions. Newer ones like me can take Social Security, but we don't have the pensions like they older workers do. to read more about this check the link and scroll down to myth # 2.

6) There is no mandatory retirement. So it is more and more common to see workers beyond retirement age maintaining their work. I've talked about this is previous posts. These people will drive the averages up because 30 years of 3% raises adds up. And, a concession to the article, GS pay raises used to be much more generous. The most I've ever gotten over 7 years that I've been in service is like 4%. But in the past, they could be as much as 6%-8%.

7) The jobs on offer now require higher qualifications. We are in a defense laden economy and often these jobs require specialized skills and technology backgrounds that command higher salaries. All government salaries are based on department of labor statistics. So when the initial salaries are set, they should be in line with private sector salaries. In fact, it's the Republicans that really pushed for contractors. We have a contractor who told its employees that to win the new round of bidding, they would all have to take pay cuts. That's lie. I know because I was part of the selection panel and we never saw prices. We based the decision on the quality of the proposals only. This is how the private sector treats its employees. Is that really what Americans want? I want to make all these people GS and get rid of these contracting companies who line their pockets at the expense of working people.

8)Many government agencies are located in expensive areas. Salary is linked to the cost of living in local areas. 35% of the base pay for federal employees in the California Bay Area is locality pay. Try living on less than that in these areas? And even at that, with property prices what they are, even in a downtown, many federal employees can't afford to buy. The Beltway, Maryland and Virginia have entire economies based on government salaries. And many of those are much higher than they would be in the middle of the country. In fact, The Washington Post covered this aspect of things in its articles. So these drive up the average. I would love to move to where my house is actually located and work in an area that is cheaper to live. And that community would love the jobs. I always said that Congress would work much better if it were located in South Dakota. The Beltway is little more than 68 Sq. miles surrounded by the real world.

I do not earn more than my private sector counterparts. I know this because there are others in my area that do the same or very similar job that I do and they make $20K more a year than I do. They also have benefits and stock options. SO I don't apologize for my solid, middle class existence. Read some of the comments from other Feds if you want a view other than mine. But we all agree that rather than complaining, people should look to Federal Employment as a model. Please, all you bitter private sector employees, come join us. We'd love to spoil you.

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Friday, July 30, 2010

Valuing Families

Whose responsibility is it to raise the next generation of Americans? The conservative or libertarian answer is simple: you are 100% responsible for your own kids and 0% responsible for anyone else's. I believe, however, that we all have some responsibility for the next generation, whether or not we have children of our own. What about a couple who chooses not to have children, do they have any responsibility to other people's children? Imagine a world where the childless decide not to exercise good stewardship over the earth's resources because their own lifetimes are limited, while parents fight to protect the earth's resources for their children. That's not a good fight. Childless and child-bearing alike need to look out for the next generation. This is true not only for environmental issues, I suggest, but also for the actual education and rearing of children. In an important sense, children are everyone's future.

Libertarians and conservatives believe that if whoever chooses to be a parent should bear the entire burden of child-rearing, from education, medical bills. Libertarian/conservatives also believe that if raising children is hard to do while simultaneously holding downa job because jobs want 50+/hours week plus weekends/nights, you should take a different job, hire a nanny, or make your spouse (er, wife) stay at home. I disagree with all that. I think it is entirely proper for me, as a parent, to demand that we, as a society and a country, make changes to our educational system, health care system, and above all to our workplaces to enable parents to both have good jobs and raise children.

The libertarian/conservative view suggests that we each must choose between (1) having a highly successful career but being childless or living in a "traditional" family with stay-at-home wife [or perhaps having kids raised primarily by hired nannies] or (2) having a family and being an involved parent but never really being able to rise to the top of your profession. These are the choices that tend now to be faced by highly-paid professionals entering their 30s.

Do we have a right to choose a different path as a society? Is it an "unfair burden" on childless people to tell them that they shouldn't get promoted faster by working 24/7? Is it an unfair burden to require companies to pay for generous maternity and paternity leave even though childless couples will not get the same leave? Will our economy collapse if we make such demands on the workplace, as conservatives argue? What about providing decent daycare? IS it unfair to tax childless couples for this, or for any public school? These are serious issues that confront us as a society. These are the issues that confront families today in big ways.

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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Why the Feds Can't Hire

Some recent stories on NPR pointed out that when the federal government shows up at a job fair, it's tables are packed with bright young grads, and now older folks, looking for a stable, decent paying job. CIA, FBI and DOD are the top of the list for government job seekers, according to these reports.

As promised, I want to share some insider info with you all. Let me start by saying that the Obama Administration is trying very hard with the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to reform and streamline government hiring. So things may improve. But why was this necessary to begin with?

In some ways, private industry has some of the same problems as government. But it in government it takes too long to get a new employee and it takes just as long if not longer to get rid of a poor performer who will file frivolous lawsuits and EEO complaints. (I'm waiting for the Burqa clad to start filing.) This has made contractors very attractive. They hire fast and take on the liability and risk of employees, which they manage to dispense with very quickly.

1. To hire, you must first have an open slot which requires multiple levels of approval. If you have to create a new job descrioption, you must research it, and get the Dept. of Labor to bless it and a competitive salary for it. And for all those who like to claim that govenrment employees get paid too much, here is the pay scale for government jobs . I will post on this fallacy later.

2. Because there is no mandatory retirement, existing job slots remain occupied, sometimes with unproductive people. So my organization has about 100 people over the age of 70 occupying jobs. Because the work we do is not physically demanding, people often stay way beyond their usefulness. You don't give poor appraisals to these people because if you do, you will get hit with an with age discrimination EEO, which will result in the manager spending hours with lawyers only to end up with an out of court settlement that requires giving the old guy his job back plus a bunch of money. The lawyers who work for us rarely agree to go to court and when they do, they rarely win. We have truly bad lawyers. So the tax payer foots the bill as do current employees who see their organization's budget slammed with all these suits. My organization is a canary in the coal mine. Expect to see this problem more and more as the Boomers choose or are forced to stay employed.

3. Let's say you wind your way through the bureaucracy and get a new job slot. Now you call your personnel office that resides three states over. They will send you a list of potential candidates with computer generated resumes that are the result of a key word search in USAJOBS.gov. The list is ranked for you based on some obscure point system that heavily favors veterans. I have no major objection to this, except that many are not really qualified to do the work. Too bad. Gotta take the veteran or at least interview him. It used to be that you had to hire from the top three on the list. They did away with that rule, thank goodness.

4. The interview: never face-to-face, always by phone because "you might disciminate" as one manager was told. "I will," he responded. "I will not choose the person who has tattoos and 10 nose rings." We are way beyond racial discrimination now. No one cares about race or gender or even sexual preference. We really just want clean cut, literate, and drug free.

The result of this is that it breeds corruption among managers. I know Jane Doe. Jane is very qualified, but she isn't a veteran. So she probably won't make it on my list. So I write the job description with very carefully drawn discriptors and I tell Jane which ones to use when she inputs her resume on USAJOBS.gov. This way, she comes up on the list before the rest. If she doesn't come up, I close the job isting. Adjust it, and try again- like fishing. Hey, you do what you gotta do.

5. Let's say you follow all the rules- no corruption, and get an what you hope is an OK person. By now, you are 1 year or more into the hiring process.

6. Now the person gets a 1 year probation. This means that if the person doesn't show he can do the job, you have to do everything in your power to document and attempt to train this person to do the job. If he still can't do the job, you can fire the person, but only the lawyers agree you have sufficient documentation. You are now two years into the process. You haven't gotten decent work from the hire. And the newly fired person, disgruntled, files an EEO or a lawsuit, calls the VA,a congressperson, etc.

EEO has run amok. As LTG implies in his post on the Burqa, almost anything is an excuse to file and EEO. What really frightens me now is that courts are admitting genetic evidence , I start to wonder if next we will see EEO complaints based on genes. As a hiring manager, this thought just creeps me out.

So woe to thee if you are a government manager or a prospective job candidate for that matter.

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Banning the Niqab/Burqa (full face veil)

So France, Syria, and likely Spain are banning the full face veil in certain walks of life. An interesting development all around. Such a rule probably could not be enforced in the USA, could it? I note that laws prohibiting wearing masks in public have been enforced since the 1870s. The masks under attack at that time were white sheets and hoods. Those laws, not always enforced, have been on the books for quite a while and are still upheld. It is unlikely that the ban on the burqa falls in the same exact category, but there is a precedent for regulating clothing in public for reasons other than simply "decency." I also note that courts have required burqa-wearing women to doff the headgear for photo IDs.

The First Amendment, however, both its "free exercise" clause and its "freedom of expression" will almost certainly protect wearing the burqa in the USA. The more interesting question for a legal scholar is which clause of the First Amendment matters more: religion or speech. This is a strange question for many today, since for many people the whole idea of "free expression" swallows up the idea of free exercise of religion. Worth thinking about whether this is so.

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Friday, July 23, 2010

A Mosque at Ground Zero?

So there is much aflutter about a proposed mosque within two blocks of Ground Zero. You can always count on Newt Gingrich to hit the nail on the head, "There should be no mosque near Ground Zero in New York so long as there are no churches or synagogues in Saudi Arabia. The time for double standards that allow Islamists to behave aggressively toward us while they demand our weakness and submission is over." What is Gingrich saying? He is saying that we should act like Saudi Arabia. On behalf of the American people, let me say to Mr. Gingrich, NO. We don't want to be like Saudi Arabia. And we reject the idea that mosques are un-American while churches (and synagogues - do you really approve of synagogues, Mr. Gingrich?) are A-OK.

Just as important, we will not encourage Saudi Arabia to change its policies on religion by becoming bigoted ourselves. Gingrich doesn't really think that forbidding the mosque will encourage Saudi Arabia to be more open - he just wants to cheese them off and score points with Americans who are (understandably) fed up with the Saudis. We should be more grown up.

There are reasons not to erect a mosque right near Ground Zero. The biggest one, to me, is that it's in bad taste. The murders at Ground Zero were committed by zealots in the name of the Islamic religion, so there is a reason why symbols of that religion might be disconcerting and upsetting to the victims' families. I get that. It really doesn't matter that they mean totally different things to the people using the symbols. But we shouldn't bar a mosque because we are mad at Muslims.

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Thursday, July 22, 2010

We Still Have This Policy

This isn't surprising, but it's still sad.

Most people who’ve been following the civil-disobedience efforts of Lt. Dan Choi may have thought he was already discharged by the Army under "don’t ask, don’t tell"—the military’s 17-year-old ban on gays and lesbians serving openly. After all, he had come out as gay on The Rachel Maddow Show more than a year ago, and his discharge process began shortly after. But Choi had always been in bureaucratic limbo and had yet to receive any official, conclusive word that his days in the military were over.

Earlier this morning he got the call. It was from his commander at the 1/69 Infantry Regiment of the New York Army National Guard, and it was bad news. Choi had also just learned from another source that a letter had been received some time ago, with confirmed receipt by his father in Orange County, Calif., officially declaring him kicked out of the Army. "But my dad and I are not on speaking terms," says Choi, who had not been informed of the letter by his family.

Let's just dump the stupid rule and get on with our lives. While we're at it, let's dump DOMA too.

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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Tom Coburn Does it Again

In a rather nasty article, Senator Coburn of Oklahoma attacks Elena Kagan saying she will "violate her oath" as soon as sworn in. By this he means that she does not ascribe to his right-wing judicial philosophy, not much more. Coburn's article is worth reading because it is such a prime example of what is wrong with right-wing views on the constitution. I sort of recommend it for that reason. Can the government mandate you eat vegetables? Surely, he says, that obviously is a proxy question for "can the government require purchase of health insurance." It is, but it's a dumb law, as Kagan said. She didn't go into why it's dumb, but here it is: the government could tax everyone for health insurance, just like social security. The issue is nowhere near the invasion of personal liberty - dare I say, the right of privacy? - entailed in a federal instruction about what to put in your body (eat).

Kagan also declined to talk about "natural rights" in the cosntitution. By that she declined to say that the constitution should be interpreted according to some divine "natural rights" idea. I think Thomas is the only justice who believes that his view of "natural rights" trumps anything in the constitution. That view would normally be conceived of as quite liberal if it meant, say, the right to privacy rather than what Thomas thinks.

Read Coburn's piece. Be glad he isn't on the court.

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