Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Democrats in the Fall

There was some very good but under-reported news out of Mississippi last night. Republican Congresscritter Roger Wicker was appointed to take Trent Lott's seat a couple months ago, from a district presumed to be reasonably safe for Republicans. A special election was held last night. There was no national focus on the race. It is technically nonpartisan for weird reasons, but everyone knows who the D and R candidates are. The Democrat got 49%, the Republican 47%, meaning there is a runoff on May 13th. The strong Democratic showing tells us that there is a real possibility of Democrats scoring more broad victories in the Fall even in red states, because of Republican mismanagement. This victory also means that the senate seat in Mississippi may be more competitive than previously thought.


History Buff said...

I heard on NPR yesterday that the number of registered Democrats this year far outweighs the Republicans. So if they stick to their party and all go out and vote it could be very interesting.

I know I was surprised during the 2006 election when our incumbent Repulican congressman Henry Bonilla lost to Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who had lost his seat due to redistricting. Bonilla had been a shoe-in and I hadn't really heard any negative news about him. I think he was definitely a casualty of Republican political maneuvering gone awry.

Raised By Republicans said...

The war, the sex scandals and related cover ups hitting the Republican leadership dominated the 2006 election.

2008 will be dominated by the economy and the war (currently in that order but that could change). Neither issue favors Republicans.

People are unhappy with the status quo and the Republicans, being mostly responsible to setting up the current state of affairs, don't have a lot of alternatives to offer that are consistent with their party's platform or the preferences of its base. In short they're screwed.

Another story that hasn't been talked much about is the number of Republican members of Congress that have announced their retirements. It's just no fun to be in the minority. That will be a big deal in a few months.

USWest said...

It helps that there are so many new voters. I heard that in Penn. there were like 22K newly registered Democrats and a large number were switching over the the Republican party.

People aren't happy, period. And GW, much like his father, is pretending that all is fine enough while he glides out of office, leaving a mess for the next person.

Anyway, my point is that Obama has brought so many young people into the system, that it has really helped the Democrats. And let me point out that the Echo generation is as big if not bigger than the Boomers. We really need those young people. So Obama came at just the right time. The Democratic Party has to work to keep those Echos!

In terms of Mississippi, I wonder if the election was swayed by the fall out only the Gulf Coast after Katrina.

The Law Talking Guy said...

You could be right about the fallout. I suspect the real issue is that the Dem party is energized and the Republicans aren't, so the GOTV efforts were at total failure. They may do better at the tiebreaker on 5/13. I notice the Democrat failed to obtain a majority by 400 votes, giving the Republicans a chance for a runoff. Nice counting there, local GOP party. I'm sure the local polling officials will return to Zimbabwe to resume their usual tasks shortly.