Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Saturday, December 15, 2007

McCain's Surge

I am no longer the only one paying attention to McCain's candidacy. Iowa's Des Moines Register and the Boston Globe have both endorsed McCain for the Republican nomination. (For the Democrats, the Register picked Hillary Clinton and Globe favored Barack Obama.) McCain is now consistently #2 in New Hampshire polling and rising (albeit about 14% behind Romney).

A Newsweek op-ed piece says that McCain has, "got his mojo back." USA Today headline reads, "McCain gaining in New Hampshire." Detroit News notes that when non-Republicans who might vote in the Michigan primary are factored into themix, McCain is actually leading there.

On the one hand, this is sort of good because I think McCain is surely the best of the Republicans running. But that frightens me also. I would far rather the Republicans commit "Huckacide" as one blogger put it. John McCain is the only Republican who consistently polls at a statistical tie with Clinton and Obama--all the other potential Republican nominees lose in head-to-head matches. Food for thought.

12 comments:

Raised By Republicans said...

McCain's advantage in national polls may be because he has better name recognition than the other Republicans.

McCain did get an endorsement from Brownback and a couple of other Christian conservatives but he remains very much an outsider for them. He may not get them enthused in the general.

More importantly, a McCain candidacy will make the 2008 election all about the war in Iraq. Guess who wins that argument! McCain is famous and people (wrongly) think of him as a straight shooter and honest politician with a mavrick streak. But the very first time he gets in a debate the Democrat (who ever it is) will beat him over the head with his blind committment to endless war in Iraq.

Dr. Strangelove said...

I hope you are correct that, if McCain wins, his support for the Iraq war will doom him. But I fear otherwise. Many will say, "I disagree but he is a man of principle." And for all we really know, the "surge" may yield results...

The Law Talking Guy said...

Joe Lieberman endorsed McCain today. That tells you all you need to know about both of them. Yich.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Here's the trouble that gnaws at me... I kinda like McCain. Yes, I disagree with him on many issues... but I still find I respect him. I can't vote for him because of those issues, but I keep thinking: if I feel that way, I'll bet he has huge crossover Independent appeal. I hope the Republicons are too stupid to see that!

Dr. Strangelove said...

McCain was also endorsed by the Manchester Union Leader, the third important local paper. NY Times ran an article front page on McCain today. It notes that Huckabee is forcing Romney and Giuliani to shift resources from NH to Iowa, as I suspected...

Raised By Republicans said...

Dr. S. What do you like about McCain? His pandering to the religious right by delivering the commencement address at Bob Jones "University"? His support for the war in Iraq? Or his history of personal corruption (see stories about the Keating 5)?

Is McCain eligible? He was born in the Panama Canal Zone? Was that designated a commonwealth or something?

The Law Talking Guy said...

To be clear, the "natural born citizen" means that one is a citizen by right of birth. So, for example, a child born to US citizens abroad is a "natural born citizen" because he or she is a citizen by right of birth, just as a child of undocumented immigrants is if he or she is born on US soil (see the 14th Amendment). I figure you were being flip, RBR, but I wanted to clear this up anyway.

So, for example, the argument that Chester A. Arthur may have been born on Canadian soil is irrelevant so long as (one of) his parents were US citizens.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Incidentally, in the latest Rasmussen poll, McCain has broken away from the pack in New Hampshire: it is now 31% Romney and 27% McCain... a statistical tie. And in Iowa, the same poll shows McCain jumping to third: Huckabee at 28%, Romney at 27%, McCain at 14%, and all others (including Giuliani and Thompson!) at 8% or below.

Why do I like McCain? He has been, for most of his career in the Senate, a courageous maverick in his party: fighting for campaign finance reform, opposing torture, supporting the rights of illegal aliens, and opposing a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. He's also a war hero, which never hurts. Mostly, I think he is genuine on many of these issues. I think the "straight talk express" is back, after that hiccup at Bob Jones university. (You have to weigh against that his criticism of the religious right in previous years.)

I certainly oppose the war in Iraq, and there I differ with McCain. But unlike any of the other pro-war candidates, I believe that McCain supports the continuing the effort because he sees no other viable option. He has certainly been loudly critical of how the war was begun and conducted.

You also have to remember that I am a Hillary supporter, so to be fair, I must be willing to overlook some questionable fundraising and the occasional pandering during the primary season. Alone of the Republican candidates, McCain seems honest and on the right side of many issues. All of the other Republicans are wishy-washy opportunists who will do anything or say anything to get elected, and it shows.

That being said, I cannot vote for McCain because he is anti-choice, will not support ENDA, and most of all he is a Republican, so electing him means the Bush presidency will not be investigated and the current army of anti-science Republican operatives who have mishandled everything from FDA to NASA to EPA will remain in place. But many Independents will ignore these issues and vote for him, if he wins the nomination. If he wins the Republican nomination, I think only Hillary Clinton can defeat him. Because she is the only candidate who will be willing to swift-boat another Vietnam veteran. Maybe not the most ringing endorsement of Hillary, but forgive me for being embittered by eight years of W.

Raised By Republicans said...

"Because she is the only candidate who will be willing to swift-boat another Vietnam veteran."

OK, I'll give you that! :-)

Dr. Strangelove said...

New polls today show McCain now in a statistical tie with Giuliani and Huckabee in the national polls. McCain also surged to 20% in Iowa, eight points behind first-place Huckabee. Another poll shows him tied for first place with Romney in New Hampshire. He appears to be peaking at just about the right time.

Raised By Republicans said...

If McCain finishes in the top 3 in Iowa it will be one of the biggest political come backs in a long time. He'll be the story for days while the poor schlub who actually wins will be begging for attention.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Clinton seems to be recovering. The GOP race is a mess. The endorsements have boosted Clinton and McCain, but who knows where it will lead? In Iowa, we expect McCain to do poorly because he has always written off Iowa. The test for him is NH. The test for Obama or Edwards is Iowa.