Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, October 15, 2007

A Whole New Phase in Iraq

Get ready. We could be entering a whole new phase in Iraq. It looks like the Turks are ready to enter Iraq. It will be interesting to see what happens. I have mixed feelings about it. It could destabilize the area; it could cause an overall escalation of the raging conflicts in Iraq; for better or worse it could pull Turkey into the conflict; it it could also pass relatively unnoticed. But since when was I an optimist in these matters?

I don't know, but I am willing to bet that the military made incursions into Northern Iraq a quid pro quo for allowing Gul to take the presidency. That wouldn't have been too hard for Erdogan to do since I believe he basically supports the idea of invasion into Northern Iraq. Since the Congress, in all it's infinite wisdom,suddenly decided to get principled (or political) over the Armenian issue, something which I bet 95% of them care or know precious little about, there is even less incentive for Erdogan to hold his military back.

I toyed with the idea that maybe Erdogan warned the State Department that his military was going to move, and so the action on the Armenian issue by Congress was calculated to poke Turkey in the eye. But I doubt it. We still need Turkish air bases- among other things.

I will be watching closely what happens over the next couple of weeks.


Raised By Republicans said...

So far, it sounds mainly like bluster intended to intimidate people and prevent them from officially saying that when the Ottoman government murdered 1.5 million Armenians because of their ethnic identity, it was genocide.

But of course, the more the Turks whine about this, the more guilty they look. And the more they are linking modern Turks with the crimes of the past - something they didn't need to let happen.

Will Turkey enage in raids across the border? Probably. In fact I'm pretty sure they've already been doing that for years - even before the US invasion of Iraq. But will Turkey engage in a full blown invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan? I doubt it. But I bet the Turks want us to think they will if it will make us back down on this genocide thing.

The Law Talking Guy said...

I agree with USWest that letting the military screw with the Kurds in Iraq was probably the price of political stability there. I think the Turks are playing "wounded" regarding the Armenian genocide resolution to make the US reluctant to criticize them (further) over the Kurds. That's why they went apeshit over the committee vote rather than waiting for the full vote that isn't due up for a while.

USWest said...

By there LTG, do you mean Turkey or Iraq?

I meant Turkey. But your post is unclear.

Turkey has been running raids, but I think they are looking at going in deeper this time. They have run many raids in the past and even done incursions that border on invasion in order to snip at certain elements of the PKK. Those have not been successful.

"Kurdistan" is a word I would use carefully unless you paraphrase that with "Iraqi". What the Kurds really want is a swath of several countries, including about a third of Turkey. I think that may be asking a bit too much. So there is no doubt that the Turks are concerned over the show of Kurdish flags and the state-within-a state that the Kurds have set up in Northern Iraq. They don't want anyone getting ideas about deconstructing their country. It would be like telling the US that Canada gets Alaska. So I can't say I blame the Turks.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Turkey wants to stage pre-emptive strikes against a terrorist threat from Iraq. Gee, the Bush Administration can hardly object to that can they?

Only now do the neo-cons begin to understand how dangerous and destabilizing is the precedent they set.

uswest said...

Well, I wonder if these are "pre-emptive" so much as on-going. the PKK has attacked Turkey and the attacks have risen since 2003. Wonder why?

The Law Talking Guy said...

I meant what you meant, USWest: letting the TURKISH military screw with the Kurds in Iraq. Sorry for the confusion.

By the way, Dr.S., your comments presuppose that precedent matters. It doesn't, to neocons. The neocon view is that rules don't matter, only power. So we do pre-emptive strikes 'cause we can, and stop or condemn others who try 'cause we can.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Important note LTG made about neo-cons and precedent. I suppose it's hard to differentiate principles from power when power is the principle.

USWest said...

LTG: You wrote:"that letting the military screw with the Kurds in Iraq was probably the price of political stability there."

What you meant was, "that letting the Turkish military screw with the Kurds in Iraq was probably the price of political stability in TURKEY."

In other words, you agree with my first premise that to get Gul as president, Erdogan had to agree to let the military screw with the Kurds.

I really do think that was it because Erdogan needs to make nice with his military or else- can you say coup?

The Law Talking Guy said...

Wow, I'm really having problems with pronouns today. Yes, I did agree with you, USWest. I was trying to, anyway.