On October 15, 2003 (almost two years ago to the day), Lt. Col Yang Liwei became the first "Taikonaut" as the Chinese launched their first manned spacecraft, Shenzhou V. The craft orbited for 20 hours and returned safely. Today, China successfully launched their second (imaginatively named Shenzhou VI). It will carry its two new Taikonauts in low Earth orbit for 5 days.
China's stated goal for its manned program is to build a space station and put a man on the moon by 2010. Meanwhile, according to a Guardian article earlier this year, Japan intends to put a robotic spacecraft on the moon by 2010, and hopes to have developed the technology for a manned moon mission by 2015. Meanwhile, NASA announced on Sept. 17th of this year a $104 Billion dollar program over the next 13 years to put a man on the moon again in 2018, starting with robotic spacecraft landings in 2008-09 timeframe.
According to an NY Times article, one PRC state television commentator speculated that, "America's strategy is to lure China into a space race, and to drain China's resources so it will collapse, without a war." But another added, "This is not a competition. There is great commercial potential on the moon."
China continues to insist its interests in space are peaceful and that there is no space race. But the more they deny, the more suspicious I become. And what's this with China speaking of the commercial potential of our moon? Do they know something we don't? Laugh all you want about the Chinese space program being 40 years behind America's... looks like they're catching up fast because we didn't capitalize on it. While our space shuttle fleet is all but grounded, China is marching ahead, and Japan is putting together its own resuable spacecraft. By the time NASA gets us there again, there could be a permanent Chinese presence on the moon. And there could be several more flags.
The moon race is on. Again. And this time, my friends, we're behind.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
A Grand Day Out
Posted by Dr. Strangelove at 6:13 PM
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We were behind by this sort of measure last time too.
I'll just point out that the last I heard 60% of China's population lives on $1/day. Not good. Chinese leaders would do well to consider very carefully their allocation of resources. This accusation that the US is "luring" China into a space race is an attempt to pursuade China's increasingly pissed off rural poor that their plight is our fault - not the Communist Party's.
// posted by Raised By Republicans
What's the prize for being first on the moon (again?)
// posted by LTG
I believe the prize may be: water. There's ice on the moon. Whoever gets there first can claim it--and who's to stop them? This makes a permanent lunar presence feasible. Which makes all space exploration more feasible... for the one who has the water.
So the Chinese want to explore space? I suspect they are trying to use their space program the same way the Soviets did. Use it to distract the 60% of the population that is living in destitution.
// posted by Raised By Republicans
Dr. Strangelove says there is ice on the moon. I know it's a theory, but I did not believe it had been found yet.
// posted by LTG
The space probe Clementine (1996) reported and Lunar Prospector (1998) confirmed evidence of ice at the lunar south pole. The Lunar Prospector also reported ice evidence for the lunar north pole.
At the end of its lifecycle, the Lunar Prospector was crashed into a crater near the south pole, but the debris thrown out into space did not show signs of water. While this would have been nice to see, evidence is still strongly in favor of ice on the moon.
But LTG is right. Ice on the moon is not definite. Unlikely but reasonable interpretations of the data from the 1990s lunar probes would not require the existence of water.
I just get the feeling that the main advantage to going to the moon is to be able to say,
"Look, I can see my house from here..."
// posted by LTG
I agree with LTG. China is going to the moon for purely symbolic reasons. The US has sent 17 manned missions to the moon, six of which actually landed on it. By mission 17 people were beginning to ask why we were bothering at all.
If water is on the moon then it would be useful as a stepping stone to Mars and other exotic locations that might be worth going to. But even if China gets to the moon they will only have proved that they can do what the US could do in 1969. Rah rah. I think the US response should be to keep an eye on China but to carry out our own progress in Space exporation independent of what China does. If it makes sense to go back to the Moon fine. But we should not let the Chinese Communist Regime draw us into a second Moon race just so they can trick a billion or so destitute peasants that they are part of something great and that their suffering is counting for something other than luxury apartment blocks in Shanghai.
// posted by Raised By Republicans
cats use water to make people slip and fall.....ow....
// posted by Ralph
Ralph, have you been eating your paste again?
// posted by Raised By Republicans
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