There is great story just posted on fivethirtyeight.com about the utter lethargy and smallness of McCain's ground game. He's just all about TV ads, basically. And he's running low on cash. Apparently everything is different, including the energy level. Community organizing must be good for something, even if it's nowhere near as impressive as being the right honorable Mayor of Wasilla, Queen of the Matanuska Valley.
Friday, October 03, 2008
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3 comments:
That is a fantastic website, with polling, averaging, simulations... Very impressive stuff!
Brace yourselves though, folks: the campaign is about to get nasty. McCain would rather lose his dignity than lose the election, and we are going to see massive character assassination against Obama over the next five weeks. It's gonna be ugly.
This is where the enthusiasm of Obama supporters pays off. A lot of people were doubtful that this enthusiasm was anything other than indication of a lack of serious thought on the part of Obama supporters. However, it serves a real political purpose. It turns out hundreds and even thousands of volunteers at every local office. That combined with the money to fund those offices means votes in places no Democrat has seriously contested for decades. Places like western Colorado or central Missouri. Places like Virginia or North Carolina.
And this is why McCain is behind the eight ball. Obama is pressing McCain hard across the country, not just in traditional swing states like Ohio or Florida but in traditional red states too. McCain's ho-hum support and relatively poor fundraising efforts simply can't keep up.
The next four weeks will be brutal, true. Two more debates (10/7 and 10/15). Curiously, the last one will be the only one in the North: at Hofstra U. in NY.
But I don't exactly think McCain has been holding things in reserve up till now. That's the premise behind Dr.S's assumption that something awful is about to be unleashed on the election. Maybe a little bit is left, I don't know. But I think we will actually see mostly "more of the same" for the next 30 days till Election Day.
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