It is worth looking at polls from this time in the 2004 primary nominating cycle:
This is typical from 11/03
____________(Ipsos/Cook) ___ (Gallup)
Howard Dean 20 17
Wesley Clark 16 17
Gephardt 14 13
Joe Lieberman 12 13
John Kerry 10 9
John Edwards 5 6
Dennis Kucinich 4 2
Al Sharpton 3 5
Polls show these numbers were relatively steady, but with Dean rising throughout this period, right up until just before the Iowa caucuses in 1/04.
I'm not sure I buy the conventional wisdom that HRC is the nominee based on today's polls. The electorate is just not tuned in yet.
Friday, September 21, 2007
What do Nomination Polls Tell Us?
Posted by The Law Talking Guy at 3:24 PM
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5 comments:
I don't think she buys it either... HRC continues to campaign and raise funds at a near-record pace. However, as HRC consistently polls around 40%, and Obama, her nearest rival, is down more like at 25%, she would appear to have a stronger lead over her opponents now than Dean ever had over any of his.
I agree that it is too soon, and events in the word my take a weird turn that will throw things off. So Hilary is right to keep plugging away.
Just an aside, I watched Clark on Jon Stewart and was underwhelmed. When asked about Iraq, he sustained a football metaphor for over 2 minute during his interview ( and it was getting pretty silly by the end), and I was thinking, "Geeze, for a general, he isn't coming off as very bright. Glad I didn't vote for him."
The activists in Iowa like Edwards A LOT more than the national media seems to think.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if when the smoke clears in Iowa, Edwards comes out on top and Clinton and Obama are fighting for second fidle.
Clinton and Obama are getting a ton of free press but Edwards has quietly built up a really good ground organizatoin state wide. In the Iowa Caucus a good local organization is can be worth the same as A LOT of TV time.
About 60% of Dems polled do not list HRC as their preferred candidate, and her support is relatively soft among those who do. It's a very fluid situation. If either Obama or Edwards starts to look like a winner, they could run away with it. Particularly if either shows any "crossover appeal" which is the one thing we know HRC does NOT have.
Hey folks... I'm going to go out on a limb and call the general election (11.04.08) 13 months early: HRC beats McCain 52% to 48%. And just to be silly, I'm calling the electoral vote at 290 to 248, with Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri going for the Dems.
Why?? I have no data and no methodology, just a hunch. But I figure there's no harm in throwing my prediction out there. Hey, if I'm right, I'm the new Zogby ;-)
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