| 9/19/06 | Likely Voters | Republicans(26%) | Democrats(39%) | Independents(35%) |
| Lamont | 45% | 15% | 62% | 47% |
| Lieberman | 47% | 66% | 36% | 45% |
| Others | 3% | 8% | 0% | 3% |
| Undecided | 5% | 11% | 2% | 11% |
We learn some interesting things from this polls.
1. Independent voters are split with a large amount undecided.
2. Democrats now favor Lamont by almost 2 to 1. This shows a shift to Lamont from the primary last month where it was nearly 50/50.
3. Republicans are only giving 2/3 support to Lieberman. The other 1/3 is scattered. Some are willing to vote for Lamont. The Republican candidate is getting some fringe Republican support (some of that 8%) but little. I think it is all very soft. I also expect low Republican turnout if the choice is between two democrats. In other words, I think the"likely voter" category is very overstated for Republcians. The 15% voting for Lamont probably realize that the best chance Republicans ultimately have of taking the state in the future is to get a left-leaning Democrat in there over the centrist/rightist Lieberman.
Therefore, I predict Lamont will win this race, as the Democratic vote continues to shift towards him, while the Republican Lieberman "base" fails to materialize at the polls.
3 comments:
We also see that Lamont is beating Lieberman among indepdents. That's bad news for Lieberman.
FYI: Here is a great site for tracking state elections. They are predicting the Senate will be 50-50 if the election were held today.
// posted by RBR
I will be very surprised if the Dems don't win New Jersey. The polling there is generally sketchy.
// posted by Bell Curve
Another poll shows Lieberman leading 49-39, but no other breakdown info available.
// posted by LTG
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