Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Sunday, June 05, 2011

More on Republican Candidates in 2012

As the field is shaping up, I am increasingly coming to RBR's view that the nomination is open for Romney. It's a field of midgets, and he alone has some modest stature. Given that the Presidency will be an "open" seat in 2016 should Obama win in 2012 (neither Biden nor Clinton will run as an obvious successor to Obama), that is a much more enticing race to serious candidates.

Romney has three big problems, though. The first is his religious/evangelical problem. In 2008, the GOP nominated one of its few candidates who is not an evangelical, John McCain. The result, an electoral disaster of Dukakis-like proportions, is instructive in itself to some GOP operatives. Worse, Romney is a Mormon who was pro-choice until recently and presided over gay marriage in his state with hardly a peep. So he loses on religious and "values" grounds. The second is health care reform. He is not a credible critic of the program. The third is his personality. He could overcome the other problems with charisma, but he is so dull and uninspiring.

Will someone like Tim Pawlenty be able to capitalize on his noted charsima and evangelical beliefs to overcome Romney? Tough to say. It can happen. If there was ever a year the GOP was bound to nominate an insurgent candidacy, 2012 is it: most of the establishment figures have bowed out and the party is in the grip of TeaPartyMania.

I think we shouldn't count out Ron Paul. He has the enthusiasm, a clear anti-big-government message, and appeal in the battleground western states like Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado that the Democrats need to win in 2012. Sure, he's not an evangelical, but he has the gifts to overcome that, and he's not a mormon. Let' face it, Ron Paul really is the darling of many in the Tea Party movement. If he notches a surprise win in Iowa, NV, or NH - and he is the only one of the top four delegate finishers from 2008 other than Romney to be back - he would be such a media darling he might race to an early nomination.


Anonymous said...

Why did you waste your time writing this nonsense?

The next election is over 16 months away. Nothing that is said or done now matters. It simply wastes time and energy on stupid speculation.

Focus on now. Not the now of the lying propagandists, but the real now.

More people have been murdered in northern Mexico in the last two years than were killed in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya.

The northern part of Mexico is rapidly becoming an anarchy ruled by real life genuine criminals.

Ah, politics, that you can discuss sitting on a bar stool with the other fools. Staggering home from the wise discussion, don't forget to whistle as you stumble past the graveyard.

Raised By Republicans said...

I think LTG is right that Ron Paul could be a threat to Romney. I presume the Pawlenty being charismatic and evangelical was sarcasm. My impression is that Pawlenty is a Minnesota Czech version of Romney.

If Romney would be another Kerry or Dukakis, Ron Paul would be another Goldwater or McGovern.

I think the most likely scenario (but not a certainty) is that Romney will limp his way to victory. But where Obama and Clinton energized the entire party with a hard fought primary campaign, Romney will alienate them. I think this is all the more likely because the Tea Party wing of the party is so divided now. By the time that wing of the party unifies behind someone like Ron Paul, Romney may have a commanding lead in delegates.

Another thing to think about. If the Tea Party candidate does win the nomination, they will have real trouble with moderates. Someone like Ron Paul for example has such extreme positions on economic issues, much like Goldwater did, that Obama could easily "own" the center.

The Republicans are learning that their Southern Strategy has created a monster and now they have to live with it.

Anonymous said...

Romney does seem like the only adult in the GOP field. While the evangelicals may well freak out about him being Mormon (and unlike Huntsman, a fairly active one at that), I think his personality is the biggest drawback. He just seems wooden and uninteresting in every public appearance I've seen thus far.

-Seventh Sister

The Law Talking Guy said...

Pawlenty belongs to a megachurch, the Wooddale church. He has spoken of his evangelical roots. To quote the church website:

"Wooddale Church is an evangelical interdenominational church with a constituency from a broad range of denominational and local church backgrounds. Our commitment to kingdom-building ministry crosses denominational lines in order to fulfill our purpose.

We recognize that kingdom-building ministry is often enhanced through partnerships and associations. As a result, Wooddale is associated with several ministry organizations, including the Baptist General Conference (BGC), Bethel University, the Conservative Congregational Christian Conference (CCCC), the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) and the Greater Minnesota Association of Evangelicals (GMAE)."