Hi Everyone,
I thought I'd share my thoughts on what is going in Egypt right now. Its very hard to predict how events will play out in the midst of a crisis. It doesn't look Mubarak is going to come out of this crisis still being President but he could stay in power if the army backs him and he cracks down with escalating violence or he simply waits out the riots while using the army to protect the things he cares about. But the medium and long term prospects are more amenable to prediction. Here are three thoughts I've had about the medium and long term prospects for events in Egypt.
First, on the demonstrations themselves. It's very important that the Muslim Brotherhood were not the initiators of this wave of protests and still don't seem to be the driving force for their continuation. The reason I think that's important is because I've read research that suggests that onlookers observe who the first demonstrators are. If the first people on the streets are perceived as radical or fringe elements, onlookers discount the significance of the protests and stay home and watch the whole thing from their windows or on TV. But if the onlookers start to see people they perceive as mainstream, regular people ("middle class" if you like), they are increasingly likely to join in. In particular, I think this sort of argument is made by Susanne Lohman's article "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, E. Germany 1989-1991." World Politics v47, n1 (1994): 42-101.
Second, Egypt's percapita GDP is about $6,000 (2009). That's right about at the level that some studies suggest we should expect that IF a democratic regime emerged out of this, it could last for years - which might be enough time for it to increase its prosperity enough to stabilize. It's also at about the level where dictatorships get more durable. A third possibility could be that Egypt will enter a period of alternating elections and coups d'etat. We saw a lot of that in Latin America and in Turkey for a while. An interesting starting point for this line of reasoning might be an article by Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi "Modernization: Theories and Facts" World Politics v 49, n2 (1997): 155-187.
Third, Egypt does export some oil and natural gas but it's not considered a major exporter. To put Egyptian oil production in perspective, it is far below the rank of a country like Mexico in terms of oil exports. This may be good news for Egypt. There is a fair amount of evidence that reliance on oil exports is negatively correlated with the emergence/survival of democracy. These findings actually seem to hold for any economy that is dependent on the export of a single, valuable commodity. For a good starting point for this kind of reasoning, see Michael Ross' article "Does Oil Hinder Democracy?" World Politics v53 (2001): 325-361.
16 comments:
I'm pretty sure Texas and Louisiana are in line with Michael Ross's theories. But I digress.
Egypt is also lucky to be a very very urban country. There is very little of rural Egypt, as almost the entire population lives in a swath along the Nile. This makes democracy much easier, as the biggest problem in the Arab world seem to be rural-based Islamic fundamentalism. Urban areas are allergic to extended anarchic conditions which can be come endemic in places like Afghanistan and Pakistan. One of the reasons I think 'people power' works is that when you actually manage to shut down a major metropolitan area for a even a few days, it is an incredible accomplishment and a new form of order is needed almost immediately.
I predict that Mubarak will be on a plane to France (it is always France) in a few days with his #2 in charge of a military-dominated government. Further protests will force that government to lift the 'state of emergency' in place for 30 years (what a joke - but what GWBush was leaning toward with the war on terror, again I digress) and schedule new, free, and fair elections.
If the military can cause a coup d'etat by simply keeping order and standing by, doing nothing, as they appear to be doing, that is a huge victory for them and for Egypt. Seems to be where this is going.
LTG,
Ross isn't merely presenting a theory. He presents empirical evidence as well. Also Texas and Louisiana (and Norway) were established democracies first THEN discovered oil. Besides, social science theories are rarely determinative but rather probabilistic.
That said, I think you are right about the beneficial effects of urbanization. I'm facebook friends with an Egyptian-American and I've been following what he and his friends are saying about this and several of them are very worried about the Muslim Brotherhood. But not all of them are convinced that the Muslim Brotherhood can hijack this situation.
Yes, the military seems to be in the "king maker" role here. I imagine that soon, they will tell Mubarak to leave. These protests are getting so personally directed at Mubarak and his son, that the military could probably reestablish their control over the country simply by dumping Mubarak.
Murbarak was on his way out anyway. These protests are really timely. They don't want another Murbarak. The warnings have been there. People have been lighting themselves on fire for months. There was also the attack on Christians. This also worries me.
As I said earlier, it really depends as well on what civil institutions exist to base a new government upon. But I am encouraged. As police have stopped policing, residents have formed militias to stop looting and vandalism. This is a good sign or a willingness to do grass roots work- so long as they don't become entrenched.
Murbarak was on his way out anyway. These protests are really timely. They don't want another Murbarak. The warnings have been there. People have been lighting themselves on fire for months. There was also the attack on Christians. This also worries me.
As I said earlier, it really depends as well on what civil institutions exist to base a new government upon. But I am encouraged. As police have stopped policing, residents have formed militias to stop looting and vandalism. This is a good sign or a willingness to do grass roots work- so long as they don't become entrenched.
RBR - Gravity is a theory too, I didn't mean to denigrate the work by calling it a "theory." I presume that like all good theories it has empirical evidence. And my comments about Louisiana and Texas - two states with phenomenally corrupt and ineffective governments - were intended to suggest that Ross's argument was probably correct even in established democracies.
The fact that the opposition groups/parties are managing to coordinate and cooperate is a very good sign for the future. The best future hope for Egypt is probably like Turkey, at least in the more Islamist way that Turkey is now going. One question is whether you think these demonstrations look like Iran in 1979 or 2009. I think the latter.
LTG,
Thanks for the clarification re: theory and the American oil patch. I guess that only leaves Norway as an outlier. ;-)
I've been hearing a lot of people who know a lot more about Egypt than I do saying that the Muslim Brotherhood has been trending in the direction of Turkish Islamic parties and away from the Iranian Islamic revolutionaries for some time. The fact that the MB just endorsed the secular El Baradai as the semi-official spokeman for the opposition is encouraging.
It also sets up a structure for a "dialogue." How can the army and the Mubarak clique have a dialogue about transition if there is no one to talk to that credibly represents a broad cross-section of the opposition.
All this adds up to this looking a lot more like Philippines 1986 or Iran 2009 (albeit hopefully less violent and more successful) than Iran 1979.
I think the outcome is going to be more like Iran 2009. But there elements of Iran 1979. Like Iran 2009, this crisis lays bear the internal rifts that exist in Egypt, rifts which are more open in Egypt than in Iran. The chaos is a bit more like Iran 1979.
There is, from what I am reading, divisions between the Interior Ministry (police)and the Defense ministry. To exert its importance, the Interior Minister pulled the police from the streets for a day. The result was chaos with plain clothes cops robbing banks and setting prisoners free. I am also reading that there is no longer border control between Gaza and Egypt, which means that Hamas and the Muslim Motherhood are coordinating.
Within the Egyptian military, there are many mid-rank officers and NCOs who are more religiously conservative than the upper ranks. If the more conservative elements of the military take hold, then you could well end up with a much more religiously conservative Egypt.
The only thing everyone seems to agree on in Egypt is that they do not want any more Mubarak or his son. But I am not convinced that they all want "Western-style" democracy either. They want jobs and money. You don't need market capitalism and political liberation for that to happen.
CNN is reporting that the army is pledging not to use violence against the demonstrators.
They key will be if they can arrange a graceful exit for Mubarak. They being the military. Considering who they have made Prime Minister (the first one in 30 years) and the VP, this may turn out to be a military coup like Turkey of days past more than anything else.
Well, the Philippines transition to democracy in 1986 began with the dictator, Marcos, deciding not to go down the blood bath route and then there was a coup d'etat followed by elections.
Let's hope that's the model that fits here.
The dialog will be Suleiman offering various things and the opposition saying: No, you get nothing. Mubarak must go. You too. I offer you a way out.
LTG, I think you are right. The opposition will give Mubarak days and Suleiman weeks (maybe). But I think they want an end to military rule. The military of course is trying to preserve as much of their regime as they can. Frankly, if they wanted to retain control, they should have kicked Mubarak out as soon as he suggested his own son as his successor.
I've heard that the opposition blame Sulieiman for the violent crack down by the thugs and are refusing to meet with him. That seriously constrains the options for an orderly transition.
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