Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Some Good News For the Left

So progressives are probably a little down today. That's OK, the Democratic party took a bit a beating last night. But here are two bits of good news to consider.

First, the results last night do not indicate a shift to the right ideologically. Despite what the Tea Party crowd would like us to think, the results last night were driven by two things unrelated to their ideological agenda: high unemployment and low turnout (which boosts the share of voters who were white, male and older).

Second, in an election year with a large swing in favor of Republican candidates (because of the reasons stated above), Iowans crushed a move to hold a constitutional convention. The proponents of holding the constitutional convention were hoping the mandatory ballot measure (held every 10 years) would pass so they could amend the state constitution to forbid same sex marriage. Such a convention may only be held every 10 years and Iowans said "no" to the chance 67% to 33% in favor.


Norma said...

Low turn out is always disappointing, but it can't hide the new political awareness among conservatives and the hundreds, maybe thousands, of grass roots organizations that have cropped up in the last 2 years.

Raised By Republicans said...


You are falling into exactly the trap the Republicans usually fall into. They, wrongly, believe that fluctuations in political support that are largely explained by things like turnout and economic conditions represent a fundamental and permanent shift of opinion among American voters.

Yes, conservatives have gotten energized in the last two years. However, what they are energized about tend to vary quite a lot from small group to small group.

At the same, the low turnout has exaggerated the effect of this improved organization by the right. It is a well known fact that midterm elections draw an older, whiter, more conservative electorate - mainly because younger, non-white voters are especially unlikely to vote in off year elections.