Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Language is evil

Oh, you have got to be kidding me.

Dictionaries have been removed from classrooms in southern California schools after a parent complained about a child reading the definition for "oral sex".

Merriam Webster's 10th edition, which has been used for the past few years in fourth and fifth grade classrooms (for children aged nine to 10) in Menifee Union school district, has been pulled from shelves over fears that the "sexually graphic" entry is "just not age appropriate", according to the area's local paper.

The dictionary's online definition of the term is "oral stimulation of the genitals". "It's hard to sit and read the dictionary, but we'll be looking to find other things of a graphic nature," district spokeswoman Betti Cadmus told the paper.

We should ban kids from talking because they might say mean things. Also we should block out the sun because if people stare at it, they'll go blind.

We had a good run as a country. Now it's time to turn it over to whoever's next in line. China? Is that you?

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Monday, January 25, 2010

Boot Bernanke!

This weekend, the President should softpedal his support for Bernanke in such a way that any insider will recognize it as a withdrawal. It's perfect. If the Democrats had sought to replace Bernanke on their own, it would have ginned up accusations of irresponsibility. But with the GOP getting in line (McCain added his 'nay' vote today) this is an amazing opportunity. Obama will have the ability to appoint a new Fed Chairman. This is an enormous amount of power that may fall into his lap. And tagging it as Obama's defeat is not going to work, not when Bernanke was inherited. Greenspan's problem was that he as an Ayn Randist who never really understood that self-interest was an insufficient cushion against economic anarchy. Bernanke, being Greenspan's annointed, is not of a wholly different mode. We need a real institutionalist to be appointed to that spot. Someone who understands that sound financial regulation is not "red tape" but the sine qua non of a healthy financial system. This is not a good time for Barack Obama to support the unpopular Fed chairman, not when withdrawing his support could actually empower the Democratic agenda.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010

Barack Obama Isn't Magic

And Presidents aren't omnipotent.


Larry Wilmore had a great bit on the Daily Show (Jan 19, 2010) where he chastises a disappointed Jon Stewart for thinking Obama was a "magic negro... you know like your Bagger Vances, your Green Mile guy..." Wilmore also says that Obama is just suffering from the "hard bigotry of high expectations."

That's pretty cogent for a comedy routine. A lot of Democrats - especially on the left - thought that Obama's election combined with big Democratic majorities would turn the USA into Sweden over night. The left wing of the Democratic party's childish intransigence over health care reform is wrapped up in this. As is the left wing's disappointment that Obama hasn't "done more" to get the Blue Dogs to accept one of the more left wing versions of the bill.

But where is the problem? Is the problem that the White House hasn't done something in its power to get health care passed? Or is the problem that the Democratic party is genuinely divided on this issue and Harry Ried (up for reelection in a state that isn't exactly a liberal bastion) is loath force Blue Dogs on the issue (if indeed he could if he wanted to). The one thing that Ried could do would be to coordinate with Pelosi to pass the bill by "reconciliation" which would circumvent the ability of the Republicans to filibuster. For some reason (I suspect related to his reelection chances), Ried does not want to do that.

Pelosi could whip the left too but doesn't want to. Pelosi could threaten committee positions of the leaders of the left wing of the party if they don't accept the Senate version of the bill. But she doesn't want to. Perhaps because she is part of the left wing of the party herself and they are her power base within the House. They got her elected Speaker.

If you ask me, the greatest sin that led to this problem was the Democratic Party leadership's failure to stand up to Lieberman when he ran as an independent back in 2006. If the Democratic Party had supported the Democratic nominee and won, they would have passed the bill in September. If they had supported the Democratic nominee and a Republican had won they would have the prospect of defeating that Republican with a unified Democratic candidate in 2012 instead of facing an indefinite future of Lieberman's crap.

But really, in the end, all of this comes about because of three things. First, the electorate is not left leaning as the left wing of the Democratic party would like. Second, the Democratic party becomes more ideologically diverse as it wins more seats. A third complicating factor is the institutional structure of the US government. Rural (read conservative) interests are over represented at the expense of urban (read liberal) interests. All of these problems are structural - that is, they can't be circumvented by a single politician just because he wishes they weren't true.

And that is the basis of my annoyance at the "blame Obama" mood on the left these days. The implicit assumption is that the only reason we don't have a public, single payer health care system in place today is because the Obama administration wasn't sufficiently aggressive. This view does not take into account the diversity of the American electorate, the diversity of the Democratic party, or the institutional structure of the US government.

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

What it means - the Earthquake in Massachusetts

There are worse things in the world than having 58 or 59 Democratic Senators, a large Democratic majority in the House, and Democratic President with far better approval ratings than his Republican predecessor. Indeed, that's exactly how the world looked on November 4, 2008, when Barack Obama won the presidency at the zenith of Democratic party popularity. But you would think from today's headlines that the Democrats just lost power altogether.

Yes, it's dispiriting as hell. A female version of Sarah Palin won Massachusetts because, among other things, the Democratic candidate, Coakley, forgot to campaign for the seat. And it's clear that dissatisfaction with the Democratic party is behind this. Notably, it is a dispirited left that stayed home as well as angry independent voters who showed up.

What does it really mean? Unemployment has risen to 10% and the Democrats are viewed as having spent trillions but accomplished nothing so far.

The fear is that Democrats will take the wrong lesson and cut and run. The real lesson is that if the Democrats had rammed through health care on 'reconciliation' in July, this would never have happened. Allowing the process to drag out for another seven months while scrambling for the 60th rascal did no good. If Democrats abandon the health care bill altogether, it will be a total and unmitigated disaster. Time to declare victory, for heaven's sake. Get a "W" in your column! The American people respect action in hard times; they are tired of speeches and don't understand the filibuster. The ultimate insult to Ted Kennedy would be to walk away now. It also will be a political disaster.

I assure you, if Democrats walk away from health care and act embarrassed for having had an agenda of hope and change, the result in 2010 will be political catastrophe. Weak and apologetic loses elections. You have to at least win your base, and they will stay home in 2010. If Democrats pass health care reform as promised - through the House or with a quick Senate vote before Brown can be seated - they will at least have done something for the ages. The base will be ready to campaign in 2010. Your choice, Democrats: will you turn 2010 into a season in hell, or leave this merely as a brief winter of discontent. Time to fight. Time to govern, at last. Time to punish Lieberman for betrayal, since having him "in" has done only harm. Pass health care, then give us a stimulus bill with real tax cuts that can be felt in the pockets of taxpayers very quickly.

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Monday, January 18, 2010

Massachussets Republican Senate Candidate Insults Obama's Mother

Here is a clip of Republican Massachussets Senate Candidate questioning whether Obama's parents were married at the time of his birth.

This is the guy who has promised to kill health care reform with his first vote in the Senate. Is there anything to the Republicans' ideology except misdirection with social pontificating combined with protection of big business interests? They wave their hands about "family values" and "the homosexual agenda" etc and then vote a fairly transparent line of protection of huge corporations (note that this is different than a market oriented voting pattern).

This guy, Brown, is a tool. I can't believe there are independent voters seriously considering voting for this guy.

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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Haiti

Hi Everyone,


By now you've heard that the poorest country in the western hemisphere, Haiti, has been hit with a major earthquake. This after getting hit with four named storms in the last year. Haiti observers (I hesitate to talk about "authorities" in this case) are talking a death toll over 100,000. This is truly horrible and I'm sure we all have nothing but sympathy for the Haitian people.

But I think it's worth talking about WHY Haiti is so vulnerable. Big quakes hit lots of countries without killing hundreds of thousands of people. Why is it so horrible in Haiti? Haiti is like a perfect storm of social, economic, environmental and political problems.

Economics: There is virtually no foreign investment in the country so the economy - under the best of circumstances - is little more than subsistence. 80% of its population lives in poverty. Haiti is what happens when all the evil capitalists leave. Haiti is the warning to the people who think that multi national investment causes poverty. Foreign investment may not eliminate poverty but if you remove it, you need a really dark imagination to visualize the consequences.

Politics: There is virtually no government capable of acting as such. Haiti is also the warning to those on the right who think that the absence of government would be some kind of paradise. Haiti operates in a state if near anarchy. There is a tiny national police force that I heard a US observer describe as "better than before but not up to this." There are virtually no fire departments. As you might imagine for a country with such a weak government, there are virtually no building codes so the quake destroyed a lot of the capital city (I saw one picture of the capital right after the shaking stopped and the entire city was covered with a rising dust cloud from collapsed buildings).

Environment: The country has been almost totally denuded of trees. People have cut down the forests for fuel and to clear farm land. This has exacerbated the effects of the quake because Haiti is also rather mountainous. Denuded mountains are prone to landslides. I also shudder to think about the poor access to clean drinking water in Haiti even before the quake and it is certainly worse now.

Social: All of these problems mean that for Haitians the response to the quake is going to be an individual, family or maybe neighborhood affair. The response we saw to Katrina in the US is unthinkably utopian compared to what is possible in Haiti. The response the Indian Ocean countries managed after the Tsunami is equally unimaginable for Haiti.
What we are watching unfold in Haiti is what happens when everything goes wrong ... and then there are natural disasters.
UPDATE: Here is what Pat Robertson says about Haiti. He claims the country made a pact with the Devil to expell the French and all their problems since are a result of that. Yes folks, it's the voice of the Republican base. When will the GOP leadership repudiate hate mongers like Robertson?

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Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Farewell to Iceland

So Iceland's President vetoed the "IceSave" package to repay some of the debts owed to the UK, Netherlands, and others. An LSE Economist made the odd comment that Iceland might go "bankrupt." Of course, countries can't go bankrupt. This means some sort of default might be possible. But there are still other possibilities.

Until 1949, Newfoundland was not part of the Canadian Confederation, but was an independent Dominion like NZ or Australia. In 1933, with Newfoundland unable to pay its debts, the British government essentially cancelled Newfoundland's independence and created a commission to pursue its constitutional future. After WWII, Newfounldand was offered a chance to return to independence ("responsible government" it was called) or continue the commission government for another 5 years. At length, a third option was added: joining Canada. In 1948, Newfoundland voted to join Canada (and have Canada take over its debts).



Could Iceland go the way of its North Atlantic neighbor and rejoin, say, Norway?

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Friday, January 01, 2010

2010 Predictions

So, what's the point of following politics really closely if you aren't willing to go out on a limb and be a prognosticator? I'm sure there are mathematical models out there based on polls, voting history, and economic data that can predict 2010, but they are likely of limited value here. Such models are good explanatory (in reverse) but depend on data we don't have yet and have large margins of error, large enough to consume the tighter races and. Applying such metrics in advance reminds me of NFL referees who spot the football based on their own hunch, then measure it with a micrometer as if it were an exact science. I am going to make predictions based on how I expect the world to look in the summer of 2010.

Background: I presume that the campaigns of November 2010 will be "set" by summer 2010. What I mean by this is by August 2010, we will know what issues are going to be salient, which races are going to be contested, and the voters will have formed their impressions about (a) how Obama is doing (b) how the Democrats are doing on the Hill and (c) how the economy is going. So after Labor Day 2010, the arguments raised by the candidates will take place within this existing framework. I presume it will not be possible after that point to make large changes to public opinion about how the economy is going or what issues matter. (Only a whopping scandal, terrorist attack, or other massive unforeseeable event can really change the layout of campaigns from that point forward). Thus I base my predictions largely on how I expect the parties and candidates to position themselves in relation to this set battlefield.

Base predictions on issue salience-
Economy: the GDP will be enjoying its 5th straight quarter of growth by July 2010, and the unemployment rate will have begun to dip below 10%. Public opinion will amenable to the argument that the Obama administration has "fixed" the economy from the state it was left in by Bush. This will be the most important issue in the 2010 races.

Foreign policy: This is rarely an important issue. It will be mixed, in any event: Afghanistan will be an unpopular war, but the public will have no significant reason to fault Obama on foreign policy.

Deficits: Important if connected to a weak economy and fear of sliding back to recession; unimportant by itself.

Social issues: Independent voters hate these issues. They are unlikely to be a big deal because the GOP is getting tired of running on an anti-gay platform. Despite brutal and vocal Republican opposition, no cause in America has done as well in the past decade as gay rights.

Health Care Reform: Not an issue except for the party base on both sides.

Taxes: not an issue in 2010, because no promise to cut taxes will be taken seriously or perceived as responsible.

Likely themes: Democrats will look backwards to their economic accomplishment and warn of a return to Bush. Republicans will run hard against Barack Obama (NoBama) and deficits.

Likely mistakes: Democrats run the risk of downplaying their accomplishments, and weakening the base support/response, in the mistaken belief that they need to run to the right to win. Republians are a more right-wing, conservative bunch than even 2008 (smaller electorate) and they run the risk of having a bitter, extremist campaign that turns off the center. Democrats, in other words, run the risk of taking their base for granted, while Republicans run the risk of playing only to their base.

How to succeed: For Democrats, put Barack Obama out front and cheer for him. Bring back the love. For Republicans, urge caution and moderation.

Predictions:
Democrats will lose 10-15 seats in the house. These will be almost entirely marginal southern/border states where a smaller, more conservative midterm electorate cannot support them. The most written-about losses will be in Virginia, probably Dist. No. 5.

Senate:
Pickups by D: NH, Missouri
Why: NH is trending blue and Carnahan can win MO given the economic issues.

Pickups by R: Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware
Why: Arkansas hates Obama. Colorado will not have the Obama excitement in 2008. Delaware will not vote for Biden's son for senator over its incumbent rep, Castle (R).

Seats that will be hard-fought but will not change hands: Nevada (Reid), Florida (Open-R), LA (Vitter), Penn (Specter), Ohio (Voinovich).
Why: Florida and Louisiana are trending Republican, while Nevada and Penn are going blue. These are very powerful demographic forces that aren't going to be turned back. As tough as things may look for Reid now, Nevada has never been more Democratic. Ohio will sink back to its Republican ways in an open seat in an off-year election.

Seats that are supposed to be hard-fought, but won't be: CT (Dodd), Illinois, Kentucky
Why: These races are beltway stories. Connecticut isn't going to elect a right-wing Republican, and there's no other kind available. Ditto for Illinois. Kentucky's Bunning may be unpopular, but KY isn't going to elect a Democrat now. Not given Obama's unpopularity in the Appalachia-Ozark area.

Predicted Senate: 59D - 41R.
Note that the projected pickups are all pretty tight races. We could legitimately see Dems from between 57-62.

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Monday, December 28, 2009

Cloture Reform

The Senate is broken. The Republicans have now established that all legislation requires 60 votes except the budget which is exempt from the filibuster rule. This supermajority requirement is in contravention of the US constitution and exists exclusively as an accident of Senate parliamentary procedure. For the better part of two centuries the filibuster has served as a check on extreme legislative behavior by allowing a few senators to hold up debate for long periods of time. Since the filibuster stopped all legislative activity and required nonstop speaking, it was an extremely radical tool that required great personal effort.

Cloture - the ability to cut off debate - was not introduced until the 1917 century, where 2/3 vote was needed. This was reduced to a 3/5 vote in 1975 by the last Democratic supermajority (61 Democrats) but the requirement modified to be for 3/5 of all senators enrolled, not 3/5 of all present. This means that 60 senators must show up to vote; it cannot just be 3/5 of those in attendance. This is why you have to wheel in senator Byrd. And why Republicans like Senator Coburn publicly prayed for Senator Byrd's death. The 1975 cloture rule was coupled to a 'gentleman's filibuster' rule that allowed other senate business to go on if a bill was being filibustered. This was a mistake also. The result is that there is almost no cost to the minority party for invoking the tactic.

The easiest cloture reform to make would be to change it to 3/5 of all senators present. This, at least, would require the filibusterers to show up to vote! Another change would be to require a 2/5 vote (40) to continue debate, putting the onus exclusively on the filibusterers. These would not disturb the 60/40 ratio which would be the hardest to change. Evidently there is still a strange little rule requiring 2/3 vote to invoke cloture if there is a filibuster on a motion to change the Senate rules. So 60 votes isn't sufficient to change Senate rules. A deal could be struck about removing the filibuster for judicial nominees, which the GOP wanted.

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Sunday, December 27, 2009

Mary, Mary, Quite Contrary

So the liberal intertubes are all atwitter over Mary Matalin saying president Bush Jr. "inherited" the 9/11 attacks:



Two things: first, is anyone going to call her on this? I say no. But second, even if someone does call her on it, I'm sure she will defend the statement. It's worth remembering that in the wingnut mindset, nothing was President Bush's fault. Bin Laden? Clinton should have caught him. 9/11? Security failings under Clinton. Recession? Clinton. So here's my prediction: if someone asks her about it, expect her not to deny having said it, or walk it back, but explain that it was "inherited" because it was bound to happen because of Clinton's foreign policy. Take it to the bank.

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Revolution in Iran?

Thirty years after the 1979 revolution, another generation is rising up against a government marked - as was the Shah's - by brutal repression, torture, and lawlessness by the supposed authorities. After eight months, it has become clear that the demonstrators are not giving up, nor is the opposition. We do not know what is going to happen in Iran. The government evidently has the loyalty of the military still, which is sufficient to tamp down a rebellion. What we do not know is how greviously fractured the internal politics are at higher levels. The death ofMousavi's nephew and the trials for others raise the specter of internal purges among the ranks of the ruling elite.

Dissatisfaction among the elite is dangerous. For example, it was that very specter that really led to Khrushchev's takeover in the USSR after Stalin's death and relative liberalization.

Such dissatisfaction, when combined with a public resistance, is what leads to revolution. That is what led to the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The same can be seen in France in 1789, in the British colonies in the 1770s. Iran can teeter and collapse within weeks if a substantial portion of its ruling elite essentially defect to the Mousavi side. And it appears that this sort of defection may be underway. We constantly hear of new support for the opposition, not further marginalization.

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Thursday, December 24, 2009

A Very Merry Democratic Christmas

So here's the good news. The Democrats, who were elected above all on a policy of health care reform, have finally put bills through both houses. Although some wrangling remains, there is little doubt now that there will be a bill on the President's desk in 4-6 weeks. That is a huge victory for the Democratic party. Nothing makes for electoral success like legislative victories. That is why McConnell looked so grim Saturday morning. The strategy failed. He got nothing but defeat for his own party, and gave the Democrats a victory that Obama was willing to forego in favor of bipartisanship.

The other good news is economic. The GDP figures are turning around and housing prices are down less than 5% over last year nationwide, and are increasing in some areas. Unemployment is still at record levels, but the layoffs have decreased to a trickle and new hiring is now replacing them. Also, the stock market has recovered to where it was in September 2008. These trends should continue in a positive direction into 2010. I believe that by the summer of 2010- a politically crucial time - the public at large will believe that the economy is "recovering" and the the Obama administration will get the credit for it. The "right track" polling will show that voters will by and large believe we're headed in the right direction, even if we are not there yet.

This spells political disaster for the GOP. They've got nothing to offer but criticism. That works rarely - for example, if you're the Dems running agaisnt Bush in 2006 who had a monumental record of failure and the public believed him to be a big failure. It doesn't work when things are perceived to be going your way. What has the GOP shown it will run on in 2010 except "NoBama"? And what will that get them? Not much, since Barack Obama is the most popular politician in the country right now. Repeat that for emphasis, if need be. Despite all, despite his hovering-at-50% mark, he is more popular than anyone else on capital hill.

Also, word comes today that the DRCC (the House committee to reelect Dems) has three times as much money on hand as its Republican counterpart. Republicans have nothing to offer lobbyists because they have just sat out this legislative session. The strategy of stopping has failed. No influence over nothing, so no campaign contributions to the GOP.

In other words, folks, what we see in the polls today represents the nadir of Democratic popularity with 10% unemployment and (till this morning) little real legislative success to point to. It all gets better for the Dems from here.

House races are hard to predict, but extra Democratic cash means that they can afford to save the more marginal districts. Loss of a 10-20 house seats is not fun, but it's not that big a deal. Only blue dogs will lose, and that's not a great loss.

The Senate remains anyone's game. Dems should be able to hold Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, pick up NH and Missouri (both polling Democratic even now), and challenge Ohio, Kentucky, and Florida. That's +2D. Republicans must win both NH and Missouri, and knock over a couple Dems (possibly Delaware, Louisiana, and Colorado) to make a dent in the Democratic supermajority. Nevada looks bad for Reid now, but Reid has won that state for years and it's bluer than it has ever been. After Labor Day 2010, the Democrats will campaign joyously with their popular, Nobel-prize-winning President with a simple unified message: we've turned around the mess the Republicans left us, and we're headed in the right direction. To this, the tea parties, birthers, deathers, and NoBama will have little to offer in return, even in an off-year election that favors the old, decrepit, and conservative.

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Schwarzenegger And Republican Welfare

Arnold Schwarzenegger is asking the federal government for $8 Billion or else... Or else he'll impose massive cuts in the California state budget. What does this really translate into? He wants the taxpayers of 49 other states to incur more debt so that he won't have to break his promise not to raise taxes on California's tax payers. This is absurd and it indicates the hypocrisy and intellectual bankruptcy of today's Republicans - even "moderates" like Schwarzenegger. He knows the cuts will be at best unpopular and at worst genuinely disastrous. But rather than return the tax rate to where it was before the series of tax cuts in the go-go 90s, he's gone begging to the federal government. In effect he's trying to force the rest of the country to balance his budget for him.


He's not the only Republican to do this. Alaska is the worst offender and Sarah Palin is their prophet. But the states that are most dependent on federal spending tend to be dominated by "conservatives" and Republicans. It's no secret that the South receives much more from the Feds than they contribute in taxes to the Federal coffers. Now Schwarzenegger wants to head down that path for the largest state in the country.

Republican policies, are simply unsustainable. It is impossible for every state in the country to work this way. Of course, it is possible (albeit hypocritical) for a handfull of small states to do so. But the country would be in real distress if California and other traditional contributor states start doing this too.

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Monday, December 21, 2009

Screwball

This can't be true, can it?

A self-styled Nevada codebreaker convinced the CIA he could decode secret terrorist targeting information sent through Al Jazeera broadcasts, prompting the Bush White House to raise the terror alert level to Orange (high) in December 2003, with Tom Ridge warning of "near-term attacks that could either rival or exceed what we experience on September 11," according to a new report in Playboy.

The report deals another blow to the credibility of the Department of Homeland Security's color-coded terror alert system, and comes after Ridge's claim that the system was used as a political tool when he was DHS secretary.

The man who prompted the December 2003 Orange alert was Dennis Montgomery, who has since been embroiled in various lawsuits, including one for allegedly bouncing $1 million in checks during a Caesars Palace spree. His former lawyer calls him a "habitual liar engaged in fraud."
Really? You believed that Al-Jazeera broadcasts contained hidden messages from terrorists? And that this con artist could decrypt them? I mean, I believed that the Bush administration was as incompetent as much as the next guy, but this is hard for me to handle.

I would say "thank God the adults are in control now" but ... we still have that color-coded terror alert system, right? And we still can't bring water on airplanes? So ... we've got a ways to go when it comes to a rational approach to terrorism.


Edited to add a title

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Strange Political Fight

While the Democrats are busy embarassing themselves over their handling of the health care reform package, you'd think national Republican figures would sit back and watch or at least chortle a little. But it seems Sarah Palin and Arnold Schwarzenegger are gearing up for a squabble over - get this - who has better "green" credentials.


This is a strange fight. I think it shows a couple of things. First, Sarah Palin is not a very sophisticated political strategist. She has one move, get on the front page by being "outraged" about something. In this case it may backfire. No one who cares about environmental regulation will believe that Sarah Palin is the leading green Republican. And the typical Palinista will not approve of her trying to be one. Why on Earth is she doing this? I believe it is because she can't resist picking a fight that gets her on the front page. She thinks that this is like squabbling with David Letterman or something.

Second, it shows the poverty of ideas in the Republican party. If their two most prominent national figures now (Palin and Schwarzenegger) are fighting over who does what on a Democratic issue, it is a good indication that they can't think of anything better to talk about. This would be like Obama and Clinton debating who is more committed to the pro-life stance. If the issues for 2010 are economic recovery and the environment, it favors Democrats.

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Science, Statistics and "Tricks"

Before I begin let me say this. The capital of Denmark, Copenhagen, is pronounced "CopenHAYgen" not "CopenHAHgen." Neither is the Danish pronunciation of course. The Danish name for the city is Koebenhavn which sounds nothing like either alternative discussed previously. The "CopenHAHgen" pronunciation is actually and approximation of the GERMAN name for the city. But the brainless twits on CNN etc often insist on using the German pronunciation because they think it makes them sound smarter. But if you can't pronounce the Danish name, you should just use the English pronunciation.


Now, with the meeting in Copenhagen, there has been a bit of a media spasm about supposed fraud among scientists regarding their statistical analyses of climate change. This is based on a stolen email where a scientist refers to a "trick" he used to merge two data sets. I work with data often enough to have a good idea of what he was talking about and it wasn't fraud. What he was talking about was an open and transparent way to make two data sets collected by different research groups compatible. It happens all the time and as long as the researcher doing it is open about doing it and how they did it, there is no problem with it at all. But the climate change skeptics out there are using this story as an excuse to claim that climate change is just a massive conspiracy by elitist "scientists" who are just trying to make life difficult for honest Christians who haven't had their moral senses debilitated by an excess of indoctrination in "school."

Of course, this entry will have no influence on the people who need influencing. They will either never read it or dismiss it as ideological ranting. But sometimes it feels good to vent.

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What to do with the Left Over TARP Money

So the news this week has been about how a number of the big banks have paid back their TARP loans early. Also there are a lot of TARP funds that never got dispersed. I think it comes up to something around $200 Billion.


The Obama administration and Congressional leaders of both parties are lining up their plans for this supposed windfall. Corporate interests want it to be used to offset a cut in the corporate tax rate. Democrats want to use it for another round of stimulus spending aimed at things like green technology, infrastructure and jobs creation.

I think both ideas are flawed. The complaints about corporate tax rates are a constant. They'd complain if it were only 1% and if it were 0% they'd insist on subsidies. The stimulus idea is politically driven by the need to appear to be doing something until the economy gets better. The problem there is that the first rounds of stimulus are still being dispersed and the economy appears to be on the right track already. So spending another $200 Billion could end up being overkill.

We should use the money to pay down our deficit. We borrowed it in the first place and while $200 Billion would be a small portion of the overall deficit, it would help. We're spending money left and right. For the most part, I think that spending is justified. I'm not some ideologue who thinks deficit spending is socialism or that government doing anything at all means that the next step will be that they put me in a concentration camp. But I do think that it is reasonable to argue that if we find that we borrowed a little more than we thought we needed, we should pay down the loan with the extra money.

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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Electing a Lesbian Bishop

I was a delegate to the 114th convention of the Los Angeles Diocese of the Episcopal Church in Riverside this past weekend where we "made history" by electing the first lesbian bishop. Unlike Bishop Gene Robinson, who famously remarked that he was scarcely the first gay person to be a bishop in the Anglican or Roman churches - just the first one to be honest about it - the list of female bishops is so short that we can safely say that The Rev. Canon Mary Glasspool is the first lesbian bishop in the Church. The vote for a new bishop is taken by orders, and a candidate must get a majority of both clergy and laity. There were 203 lay votes in favor of Glasspool on the 7th and final ballot, including my own vote.

Some clarification. In the Episcopal tradition, each administrative region or "diocese" has one "Diocesan" bishop. This is a bishop with a specific administrative responsibility for that diocese. In addition to the diocesan bishop, there may be more than one Bishop "suffragan." A bishop suffragan is sort of a bishop-without-portfolio: ordained and called to the episcopate but not given a specific geographic administrative function. Most dioceses do not have suffragans. Of those that do, it is rare to have more than one. The LA diocese, which is very large, has two. One reason to have a bishop suffragan is that a bishop by custom visits each parish at least once a year to preach and administer sacraments. With 180 congregations in LA, but only 52 sundays in a year, this task cannot be reasonably done by one person. A bishop may appoint an Assistant Bishop (usually from retired bishops) who is specifically a helper-bishop and who may be hired or fired at will. A Bishop suffragan is not an "Assistant" in this way (despite how the papers report it). He or she serves for life, just like the bishop diocesan. A bishop suffragan is more like a co-bishop. Anyway, that's who we elected.

The process for choosing our bishop was as follows. The nominations were opened for 6 weeks in mid-2009. Each candidate has to be given a full background check. For this reason, nominations from the floor of the convention are not possible. The 24-person "search" comission includes both lay and clerical members. There were 51 nominees, of whom 20 actually applied. Of the 20 nominees, the diocesan "search committee" narrowed the candidates to six by unanimous vote. These included one straight white woman, one gay white woman, one gay white man, one straight black woman, and two straight hispanic men.

Why did I vote for Glasspool? While not required anywhere to explain my vote, let me say that the reason was twofold. First, she was nearly a decade older and more experienced than most of the others. She was also one of only two who came from outside the diocese, which I regarded as a plus. We don't want to be too insular. With that being said, I was also delighted that by electing her we could make a statement to our own people about the final step of inclusion of gay and lesbian persons in our Christian life together. Poking my finger in the eye of the Archbishop of Canterbury was a minor, sinful pleasure.

The voting on the floor took place in two rounds over two days. The white, straight candidate (Diane bruce) was elected on the first balloting on the first day. That took four votes. Glasspool consistently came in second during that voting. Once Bruce was elected, the filed narrowed to five. The delegates split between Vasquez and Glasspool. The "gay thing" was scarcely an issue. In fact, the only lesbian clergymember who shared her vote with me was urging me to vote for Vasquez because she felt that he was an incredibly talented leaader who had been given short shrift because his English is so poor. The real discussion was whether to elect a secodn white woman or someone of color. The bishop pleaded with us to listen to God and not to try to "engineer" God's will. Some otuside the convention might have taken that as a plea not to elect a gay person; it was directed, actually, to those seeking racial diversity. The clergy settled on Glasspool by the third vote, but the laity did not. The laity twice voted for Vasquez with a majority, but the clergy did not budge. The crucial vote came after lunch on Saturday, when the clergy were preparing to leave. Typically, I understaand, the clergy has to leave the convention by Saturday afternoon to prepare for Sunday while the laity just take sunday off, so the laity usually can "hold out" and make the vote. We didn't - the laity prayed and reversed course, joining the clergy in voting forGlaspool on the 7th vote, the results of which were announced at about 2:45pm.

We all had to sign a testimony that we were present during the election. While this happened, the bishop led us in an impromptu singing of "Amazing Grace." The convention stood, sung, and wept. The bishop's own voice was cracking as he announced the election results, something quite amazing to see. As I left the convention hall to head home - sneaking out before the final devotional service of the day - I was astonished to see news reports of the vote coming out everywhere. Was this really so radical, to vote for a 55-year old woman from Baltimore who had been a priest for a quarter-century? My reaction to reading the Archbishop of Canterbury's terse reply on Sunday was unexpectedly furious. We are called to raise up our own leaders to preach the gospel. We know who we are. And it was liberating to express without reservation that our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters are a full part of our community, loved by God who created all of us as we are, in His/Her image. It is simply not the Archbishop's business to tell us how to respond to Holy Spirit.

I want to stress to you all that this was a surprisingly un-political convention. There was no opposition to electing a gay person in any evidence anywhere, at least no opposition on that basis. What I can assure you is that we left the convention with full and joyful hearts, in awe of the new things that God is doing in this world.

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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Welcome to the 18th Century

Parliament began fulfilling a judicial role in England in the period after the 12th century. The Commons (such as it was) was taken out of this role in 1399. With regular parliaments and an increasingly sophisticated judiciary, the house of lords gradually created special committees to handle what was now an appellate role. This was the state of affairs when the USA created its Supreme Court in 1789. In 1875, a provision was made for special lifetime appointments to the House of Lords for the sole pupose of being a judge. These were the first life peerages and created what were known as the "Law Lords." The Law Lords were increasingly professionalized. Now in the 21st century, the UK has finally done what its colonies were capable of in the 18th century: create a real independent supreme court. Hard not to be a bit snarky. This was authorized by parliament in 2005. It took its seat yesterday and began to hear cases. You can see at www.supremecourt.gov.uk. This is a parallel to www.supremecourt.us.gov . The new Supreme Court of the United Kingdom does not apparently have the right to declare acts of parliament to be unconstitutional. Well, there's still no written constitution, so what can you do?

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Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Once More Unto the Breach

The President's new Afghanistan strategy has been announced. The details are known. Send another 30,000 troops there at breakneck speed, try to turn Afghanistan around, then begin the transition back to Afghan forces leading the war effort in 18 months. Republicans mostly are happy, but some criticize the end-date and others (like George Will) want to leave now - they want, in other words, to do the very "cut and run" that was so derided in Iraq.

Is this going to work? I don't know. Here's the good part. The good part is that we are establishing limits to our involvement in Afghanistan. No open-ended commitment. The whole idea of having an exit strategy is to be sensible. Everyone knows that there is no such thing as an open-ended commitment by the any major power to fight a foreign war like this. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan (USSR) etc - we know the rules. So does the Taliban. In other words, we are finally learning what guerrillas and insurgents have known all along: wait long enough and the foreign power (the USA here) will leave. That is a known fact. Pretending otherwise deceives only ourselves, not our enemies.

So we need to have a strategy that can work within a limited period of time. Let me ask a larger question: given that no open-ended commitment is ever really possible, is there another military strategy we could realistically embrace other than trying to put Afghani forces in a position to secure their own state against rebels? Is there, at the end of the day, any counterinsurgency strategy other than forming a new workable political arrangement that commands sufficient resources to defend itself without foreign intervention?

The good news is that, unlike Vietnam, we are not supporting a very unpopular puppet government against a popular nationalist guerrilla movement. Karzai probably would have won the runoff. Certainly, he has wide backing among important groups in the country. And the opposition is not pro-Taliban either. So the political arrangement can arranged as planned, by bringing in more elements to the existing governemnt. And Afghan forces are willing to support their own government. The key to securing Iraq was buying off - literally - the Sunni insurgents. We can do much of the same in Afghanistan.

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