After Obama's win in Iowa, he temporarily surged in the polls in New Hampshire, but it fell away in five days. The polls were only able to capture the surge, however, because they tend to work in two-to-four-day running averages. Zogby, for example, reported that they were getting results that proved accurate on Monday night, but they had to average these in with earlier answers that told a different story.
In other words, we saw in New Hampshire that even a large Poll Bounce can last as little as three days, while the Poll Lag is about three days. And Florida's election is three days after South Carolina's. So while Obama should get a boost from his huge win in South Carolina, possibly a big boost, we will not be able to measure it. So we really won't know who will win the Democratic Primary in Florida until the votes are in.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Bounces and Lags
Posted by Dr. Strangelove at 1:06 AM
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Another explanation...Obama has done well in every area where the voters are not homogeneously liberal Demcorats. His biggest successes were in Iowa (a swing state) and South Carolina (an outright Republican state most years). Even in Nevada he won more delegates than HRC largely because her support was limited to Las Vegas while his was spread across the state (and he wasn't completely shut out of Las Vegas).
I guess I'm saying there may be as much geography and partisan diversity at play as time.
With no real campaigning going on in Florida - no ads or outreach by any of the Dem candidates who pledged not to campaign there - the Florida results will be pro-Clinton. Almost everywhere we have seen Clinton leading on name recognition until about 2-4 weeks or so out, when the campaign really begins, at which point the race tightens dramatically. Thus, we can expect a Michigan-like win for her (where Obama wasn't even on the ballot and there was no campaigning).
If we see Obama do well, that will be reflective of an emerging national trend following Obama's S. Carolina victory. Stay tuned.
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