tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post8033770431285094935..comments2024-01-03T05:23:36.046-08:00Comments on The Citizens: Sexism and RacismUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-58342192649111933022008-06-10T09:21:00.000-07:002008-06-10T09:21:00.000-07:00I presume the platters were not meant to buy votes...I presume the platters were not meant to buy votes with cookies. Although, given that there would have been tons of college-age Obama supporters, bribing with food is usually a safe bet. =)The Law Talking Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886791396468512490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-35318653945171043352008-06-10T06:26:00.000-07:002008-06-10T06:26:00.000-07:00I think it is nearly impossible to support the arg...I think it is nearly impossible to support the argument that Clinton lost votes because of sexism - regardless of the childish comments from the press. <BR/><BR/>I also think that Clinton has only herself to blame for her loss. As I posted before she guessed wrong when she was calculating what her position on the Iraq War should be. Then she hired her campaign staff based on loyalty to her rather than ability. Then those she hired, ran a miserable campaign based on flawed understandings of everything from basic get out the vote techniques to the effects of the electoral systems on delegate allocation. <BR/><BR/>For example: Clinton's campaign in Iowa spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on food platters and drinks to bring to the caucuses. In my precinct, the Clinton folks were the best fed group in the room. They were also the smallest of the big three. I suppose their reasoning was that people will be more likely to come if there is food provided (it takes hours to participate in a caucus). But think about it. Potential voters don't know there is food until they get there so the food isn't bringing in any voters even if it MIGHT keep them there once they arrive. <BR/><BR/>Edwards campaign folks got there early and monopolized every chair in the room for their rather aged voter base. Same problem. Chairs might keep grandpa in the room but grandpa won't find out there will be chairs until he gets there.<BR/><BR/>In contrast, Obama's campaign didn't spend money on that stuff but filled the streets with door knockers armed with address lists and phone numbers getting out their voters. I must have been reminded to go to the caucus three or four times in the last week of the campaign.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-57820864712630247112008-06-09T17:55:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:55:00.000-07:00I don't think Mysogny caused Hilary to loose. The ...I don't think Mysogny caused Hilary to loose. The election was way too close for that. I think that mysogny was alive and well in the campaign and I posted on this several times and tried to explain it from a woman's perspective.<BR/><BR/>She lost because people are skeptical of the role of Bill, because she got off message and off image, and because she didn't come across as terribly trustworthy all the time. She has a record in the Senate to run against and Obama did a good job of that. <BR/><BR/>We had a black man and a woman to choose from. People had to pick their prejudice if they had one to start with. The key is, they came out in droves to pick a democrat and we registered a lot of voters. We have to hold them for the next 5.5 months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-71705574081405477292008-06-09T12:07:00.000-07:002008-06-09T12:07:00.000-07:00The reference I found was this article on the blac...The reference I found was this article on the <A HREF="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fiamsaam.org%2Fuserimages%2FBlackVote.pdf&ei=MX1NSIHCFKOmpASyn-HDBA&usg=AFQjCNGy_5mlyHg5znF7z1qVUTOyQ6R3aQ&sig2=z6oYPEkzn2RQCoIQtyc9sA" REL="nofollow">black vote</A> in 2004.<BR/><BR/>The paper used 2000 census data to determine black voting age population. This may be outdated.<BR/><BR/>I only quoted three states: VA, NC, and PA. The general trend was a high black voter turnout. But Florida actually bucked that trend quite a bit in 2004. (Or, if you prefer, African-Americans were discouraged from voting there by dirty tricks...)Dr. Strangelovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14407042105777411150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-15077960435130825422008-06-09T11:39:00.000-07:002008-06-09T11:39:00.000-07:00These #s are in Dailykos:Percentage of Voter Turno...These #s are in Dailykos:<BR/><BR/>Percentage of Voter Turnout in 2004 - FL Florida Popoulation <BR/>(% turnout) and [% pop]<BR/>White (70%) [61.3%] <BR/>African American (12%) [15.8%] <BR/>Latino (15%) [20.2%] <BR/>Asian (1%) [2.2%] <BR/>Other (2%) [0.5%] <BR/><BR/>This shows lots of Cuban voters in Florida and fewer blacks, even in 2004.The Law Talking Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886791396468512490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-61741579859752653702008-06-09T11:36:00.000-07:002008-06-09T11:36:00.000-07:00I don't believe the African-American vote is tappe...I don't believe the African-American vote is tapped out. Although it has been rising, it is still generally true that African-American voter turnout is lower than white voter turnout. <BR/><BR/>What happened in the special elections in LA and MS show what can happen even in the South when African-Americans vote in numbers similar to white Americans. <BR/><BR/>The figures Dr.S. quotes showing black voters overrepresented in 2004 are interesting, and would contradict the lower turnout rate among black voters normally observed. Where do these numbers come from? What about Florida?The Law Talking Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886791396468512490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-283686463865016492008-06-09T09:13:00.000-07:002008-06-09T09:13:00.000-07:00I do not think misogyny caused Hillary to lose. A...I do not think misogyny caused Hillary to lose. And Obama <B>can</B> win white, working-class voters. I guess my point is: he really needs to. He just cannot squeeze much more out of the African-American voting bloc than the Democrats got in 2004.<BR/><BR/>I feel very optimistic about Obama's chances. My big fear is that another terrorist attack will interrupt the campaign and frighten voters. If that happens, McCain will play the old hardline card, telling cheering audiences that we will hit them with everything we've got. Will Obama be able to do the same?Dr. Strangelovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14407042105777411150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-37936500007760799362008-06-09T08:52:00.000-07:002008-06-09T08:52:00.000-07:00A friend of mine who does research on race and rep...A friend of mine who does research on race and representation in the US told me recently that studies have shown that racist voting among white voters goes down sharply after those voters have been represented by minority officials. For example, white voters in cities that have had Black mayors are less likely to vote against black candidates in the future. <BR/><BR/>Something to consider here. Ohio will likely go the direction Columbus sets in 2008. Columbus is overwhelmingly white and disproportionately educated. It also currently has a Black mayor.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-68693327065412301242008-06-09T08:45:00.000-07:002008-06-09T08:45:00.000-07:00Here is an interesting NPR story that talks about ...Here is an interesting NPR story that talks about these issues:<BR/><BR/>http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13903540<BR/><BR/>I think the main thrust of my post still holds. Sexism helped Hillary and Racism's effect on Obama's campaign was complex and regionally varied.<BR/><BR/>RCP has Obama currently winning in several Central and Moutain Time Zone states that voted for Bush in 2004 (and even in both 2000 and 2004): Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Missouri (barely). Obama's also leading McCain in the latest poll in Virginia and on average is within 2% of McCain in that state.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-66057254899115466732008-06-09T07:20:00.000-07:002008-06-09T07:20:00.000-07:00"[Obama] can compensate by doing better in... stat..."[Obama] can compensate by doing better in... states with large numbers of heretofore untapped Black voters."<BR/><BR/>Which states are these? The African-American vote is pretty highly tapped by the Democrats everywhere already. In 2004, Kerry won 88% of African-American vote. Record numbers of people voted in 2004: 122 million voters, 60.7% participation rate (highest in 40 years). It is estimated that 14.6 million African-Americans voted in that election--a record--compared to 10.7 million on 2000. That's a 40% jump in actual black voter participation.<BR/><BR/>And by the way, that huge 2004 turnout represented a tremendous effort to organize the African-American vote in targeted areas. In Virginia, black voters increased from 16% to 21% of the electorate, while they only represented 18.4% of the voting age population. In North Carolina, black voters increased from 19% to 26% of the electorate, while they only represented 20% of the voting age population. In Pennsylvania, black voters increased from 7% to 13% of the electorate, while they only represented 9% of the voting age population.<BR/><BR/>So what I'm saying is, a massive effort was already made to organize African-American voters in 2004: a 40% increase in participation that made black voters <B>over-represented</B> in precisely those states you might hope Obama could now win. So let's be honest: how much better can Obama do among African-Americans? At <B>most</B>, Obama could squeeze out another two million votes nationwide... Yet surely he will lose at least that much to racism in precisely those states where the African-American vote is most vital.<BR/><BR/>More likely, Obama can win back Iowa and Missouri, then take the New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe Nevada. That is the better bet.Dr. Strangelovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14407042105777411150noreply@blogger.com