tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post588697716603443475..comments2024-01-03T05:23:36.046-08:00Comments on The Citizens: Bigger Fish to Fry on the Arabian PeninsulaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-26432655158643302242022-07-30T12:54:31.216-07:002022-07-30T12:54:31.216-07:00replica bags uk replica gucci bag g4r85p6y36 repli...replica bags uk <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/gucci-c-157_168/" rel="nofollow"><strong>replica gucci bag</strong></a> g4r85p6y36 replica bags gucci replica bags joy <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/handbags-c-157/" rel="nofollow"><strong>visit this web-site</strong></a> y6o80z6h20 replica bags in china replica bags india <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Find Out More</strong></a> z0n36p8o32 replica bags joythayteahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02824388875939316149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-51863966705307701452020-02-05T12:34:52.185-08:002020-02-05T12:34:52.185-08:00nike shoes
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The Saudi intervention seems to have sparked a violent crackdown. The security forces are acting like thugs (random, unprovoked attacks, apparently random vandalism by uniformed officers etc). <br /><br />The only good I can see coming from this is that after the crack down, the government may embark on genuine reform. This would be the "China Strategy" where after a massacre at Tianamen Square, the government did actually start down a gradual path of reform. Chinese society today is significantly more open than it was in 1989. But for now Bahrain looks like a bloody mess. <br /><br />I guess the Bahraini royals decided Saudi paranoia was a bigger influence than American moderation.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-62612734129967574502011-03-15T08:22:22.776-07:002011-03-15T08:22:22.776-07:00Well, the Saudi intervention definitely presents a...Well, the Saudi intervention definitely presents a quandary for Iran. The key will be if Iran tries and succeeds in pushing the Bahraini Shittes to resist the Saudi's and the other Gulf Cooperation Council troops.<br /><br />I am working from the premise that Iran really wants to destabilize the region so that it can become a local hegemony, which is also a direct challenge to the U.S. and other Western nations who have important interests in the Middle East.<br /><br />They key now is to calm Bahrain and then wait and see what move the Iranian's make. It's a massive game of chess with high stakes.USWesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572294996079264655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-25865598462369275052011-03-14T15:27:52.375-07:002011-03-14T15:27:52.375-07:00"Barhaini Shiites are now split into two fact..."Barhaini Shiites are now split into two factions. The Wafa and Haq blocs have formed a coalition with the Haq bloc headed by Iranian supported Hassan Mushaima. The Al Wefaq movement is the other side and has been trying to negotiate with the regime for reforms."<br /><br />This may be an encouraging development. If we presume that the overwhelming majority of Sunis and non-Muslims (who are a notable minority) would be opposed to the Iranification of Bahrain, and we see that Shiites themselves are split on the issue, then I think there is probably a sizable majority overall that would oppose establishing something like we see in Iran in Bahrain. <br /><br />That combined with the obvious willingness of neighboring militaries to intervene to preven that and the willingness of the US to pressure the regime to reform more quickly, makes me think that a worst case scenario of a Shiite Islamist state in Bahrain is unlikely.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-21195700285294854902011-03-10T14:49:04.530-08:002011-03-10T14:49:04.530-08:00I'm the anonymous. I had trouble getting my co...I'm the anonymous. I had trouble getting my comment up today. So . . .USwestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-41260485752481451542011-03-10T13:59:51.268-08:002011-03-10T13:59:51.268-08:00"So I think we should be more concerned about..."So I think we should be more concerned about the Arabian peninsula than Libya." Absolutely we should be more concerned. I guess I'm just less alarmist in my concern. I doubt Iran would take on Saudi Arabia directly (or even via a proxy insurgency in Bahrain). And I'm cautiously optimistic about the moderate signals now coming from the Bahraini royal elite. So there may be a reformist option more or less within the existing regime in Bahrain that doesn't exist in Egypt, Yemen or Libya. <br /><br />And anonymous is correct that being bogged down and exhausted by Iraq and Afghanistan limits the US military options should it come to to that. <br /><br />But frankly, I'm not convinced even Iranian control of the straights of Hormuz would be as dire for US interests as Joe Liberman et al would have us believe.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-59160753109929667562011-03-10T09:54:41.019-08:002011-03-10T09:54:41.019-08:00If Bahrain were to become too unstable, Saudi may ...If Bahrain were to become too unstable, Saudi may very well take direct action there. Bahraini instability would further threaten Saudi stability. Already, the Saudi government has taken measures to try and prevent the revolution contagion for spreading. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704629104576190500046017940.html <br /><br />If Saudi were to act in Bahrain, that would internationalize the situation and make it more possible for Iran to also take action. I doubt Iran will negotiate and work with local Shia officials. What is more likely is that it will pay local clerics to rabble rouse, creating little insurgencies to irritate the American military that is located in the country as well as the existing government of Bahrain. This is pretty much what it did, and may still be doing in Iraq. I am long ago convinced that it wasn't the "surge" that really worked in Iraq, but that the Iranians pulled strings with their local thugs to go underground.<br /><br />Bottom line: Libya is about Libya. But Bahrain and Yemen are about training routes, oil, and the security of our rather unsavory, but necessary allies in the region. So I think we should be more concerned about the Arabian peninsula than Libya.<br /><br />I would like to point out something that no one seems to mention: the cost of our international commitments in Iraqi and Afghanistan isn't doing much to ease costs at the DoD. So if we want to cut military costs, one sure way to do that is to avoid getting into no-fly zones in Libya.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-15191440165478747652011-03-09T04:50:06.110-08:002011-03-09T04:50:06.110-08:00"My point is that the instability in both Yem..."My point is that the instability in both Yemen and Bahrain will allow Iran and entry into those nations"<br /><br />But this is what I think is not really as serious a threat as you suggest. I don't think even a majority of Shia in Bahrain - should they gain real power, which itself is not guaranteed even as he current regime reforms - would welcome Iranian influence except to the extent that a new Shia Bahrain might be more open diplomatically to them while still being a US ally - something like France is.<br /><br />Yemen I think is facing a decline into failed state status. So to the extent Iran would benefit from that I agree.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-35584825495134189782011-03-08T20:07:36.150-08:002011-03-08T20:07:36.150-08:00I think you misunderstood my post. Either that or ...I think you misunderstood my post. Either that or you are making a different point. I didn't mean to imply that the Bahrainis want what Yemeni's or Iranian have. Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world, so I agree that Bahrain's really don't want that. Yemen may be headed to "failed" state status. Average Bahrainis do want what the Sunni elite have in Bahrain. Nor was I meaning to imply that we should be concerned about Islamists. <br /><br />Islamists are a mere distraction. My point is that the instability in both Yemen and Bahrain will allow Iran and entry into those nations simply to promote themselves as the main power in the region. We should be more concerned about these nations than we seem to be. And maybe we should be less concerned with Iran's nuclear plans than its other plans for a regional hegemony.uswestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-31648857396631146032011-03-08T17:35:57.374-08:002011-03-08T17:35:57.374-08:00I get that there are large numbers of potential Is...I get that there are large numbers of potential Islamists in a desperately poor country like Yemen. But I really have to wonder how many Shia in Bahrain look across the gulf and say, "Gee, I wish Bahrain was just like that." Sure there are going to be some radicals but I would imagine that most Bahraini Shia want what the Sunni Bahrainis have not what the Iranian Shia have. <br /><br />I mean, if you are a Shi'ite street demonstrator in Bahrain you are probably at least as aware of the dissatisfaction of the Iranian people with their government as you are about the dissatisfaction of the Egyptian people with theirs.<br /><br />Yemen is a different story. It looks a lot more like Somalia than it looks like Egypt or Bahrain. Yikes. All I can say is "don't go sailing in the Gulf of Aden."Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.com