tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post109880243899201870..comments2024-01-03T05:23:36.046-08:00Comments on The Citizens: What Can We Expect Next Tuesday?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-1098893042819263492004-10-27T09:04:00.000-07:002004-10-27T09:04:00.000-07:00There are other poll issues. Two are well known. ...There are other poll issues. Two are well known. First, the media have commented on the "cellular only" crowd, which they estimate at maybe 3% of the 18-30 populace. How they estimate this is, incidentally, a bit of a mystery, given that they aren't ever polled. The expectation is that being young, they are Kerryish. Second, the media has noted the "likely voter" conundrum. Not knowing who is a likely voter skews results in favor of a smaller set. <br /><br />Others are not as well discussed. Pollsters have a hard time reaching swing shift workers. This same applies to single workaholics, single people with big social lives, and anyone rarely home or rarely home during business hours. Two other groups of people rarely answer the phone: those with caller ID and a hankering for privacy, and those in financial trouble (since creditors begin calling every day). The latter is not a small group in America. Also, those with poor English skills evade pollsters. The sum is that pollsters are much more likely to reach families with younger children, those with 9-5 jobs, the elderly, and the unemployed. These X-factors are not entirely unknown. Most of these suggest, however, that the Democratic vote is undercounted (as we saw in 2000, when most polls on election eve showed Bush with a 2-3 point lead, but Gore got the popular vote by half a million). <br /><br />These are other reasons why most expect that a "tie" in the polls bodes well for the Democrat.The Law Talking Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886791396468512490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-1098830887507606022004-10-26T15:48:00.000-07:002004-10-26T15:48:00.000-07:00One other thing about the polls. Lately some of t...One other thing about the polls. Lately some of the polls have been jumping around a bit. Since the first debate, the polls have been rock steady and now some are fluctuating a bit - but usually within the margin of error or very close to it.<br /><br />These fluctuations could either reflect voters who are changing their minds back and forth (doesn't seem right given how polarized the country is right now) or it is because of random error in the sampling/measuring methods used in the polls.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.com