tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post109157236463666913..comments2024-01-03T05:23:36.046-08:00Comments on The Citizens: Speculating About Al Qaeda's GoalsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-1091722332420676762004-08-05T09:12:00.000-07:002004-08-05T09:12:00.000-07:00Good point about assuming command and control.
...Good point about assuming command and control. <br /><br />But regarding Bin Laden's committment to an anti-western (or at least non-westernizing) Saudi Arabia I ask the following question: Do you think that Bin Laden et al (again assuming a unified organization) would fold up and go home if the Saudi Royal family broke with the West? See, I think that Bin Laden would just find another reason to oppose the Royal Family in those circumstances.<br /><br />This is similar to my view of the Palestinian leaders. They would rather be the leaders of a stateless society than simple citizens in a free and sovereign Palestine. <br /><br />Like the politics of many non-democratic societies, the politics of Al Qaeda (and Hamas and the PLO) are built around personalistic networks and cults of personality rather than ideology or consistent policy goals.Raised By Republicanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461006522141969925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6762928.post-1091683452728083592004-08-04T22:24:00.000-07:002004-08-04T22:24:00.000-07:00It's an interesting thought you put forward, and p...It's an interesting thought you put forward, and presented very logically. I wonder if there is a direct correlation between the explosion of Arab media outlets (which are an outgrowth of the 1st Gulf War) and Bin Laden's actions. I tend to agree with your analysis.<br /><br />I agree that predicting what Al Qaeda will do next is at the heart of the war on terror. But good luck. If it were predictable, it would be easy to stop it. <br /><br />You are assuming in your analysis that Bin Laden actually controls Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is a loosely affiliated, decentralized network with Bin Laden more as a symbol or figure head than an actual leader. He can influence the actions of the various groups by sending a video tape to Arab satellite channels. But he doesn't immediately direct all Al Qaeda actions in say Chile. I would be curious to know, if you randomly polled professed Al Qaeda members/supporters, how many would know what Bin Laden's manifesto actually is.<br /><br />I don't think Bin Laden is in this for purely selfish reasons. In your analysis, Bin Laden is only interested in his group surviving. I disagree. That is too simple. He is, as you suggest, trying to gain influence over the Middle East. Of course he is. . He needs to gain influence to get his ideology front and center. He'd like to see the Saudi Royal family gone. They are too close to the evil West. All terrorist groups (or freedom fighters depending where you stand) have a political agenda. They want to influence their own systems. But they can't attack the system directly. But they can attack the system's allies. And the U.S. is allied to many dictatorial regimes. It is safer, more acceptable, to attack the U.S. than to attack Mubarak, let's say. The U.S. influence on the Region is viewed by some as a form of invasion. And thus, these folks feel they have a religious obligation to fight it. It is a war of self-defense. And anyone can join. Al Qaeda offers the easy way to do it. It is an umbrella organization. But Bin Laden isn't just a media premodonna, as yu suggest. He does want the influence. And he has it now.USWesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06058471452288827920noreply@blogger.com